The odds of a U.S. hurricane strike ramp up dramatically in August compared to June and July. According to U.S. hurricane landfall records which extend back 175 years, August has seen more hurricanes than June and July combined (49 total for June and July compared to 82 for August) and falls second only to September for the most likely month of a mainland U.S. hurricane hit.
Not surprisingly, Florida has recorded more hurricane landfalls in August than any other state. As we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, Florida is the undisputed hurricane heavyweight, doubling the number of total landfalls recorded for its closest competitors (Louisiana and Texas). That said, Texas edges out Florida in the early months of the season, historically recording more hurricane landfalls in June and July than the Sunshine State.
Texas’s big hurricane month
Texas is also unique in that hurricane landfalls typically peak in August (rather than September for most other states) and the risk for hurricanes drops dramatically by October.
Florida isn’t as lucky, with historical hurricane activity nearly as high in October as it is during September. This is especially true for South Florida, which has recorded as many October hurricanes as it has September hurricanes.
So unlike its counterpart in the western Gulf, South Florida often gets the late season stuff, especially from systems being pulled out of the Gulf and western Caribbean.
In August, we typically look east for hurricane threats to South Florida. August and September tend to be the months when the risk for a head-on strike to southeast Florida is most likely, so we keep an eye out for what’s coming east of the Bahamas or south of Cuba from the central Caribbean.
Watching the trends off the southeast U.S. late next week
Tomorrow marks the first day of August, but as we’ve discussed all week, things will stay quiet to open the month.
Models do show a small development window for a disturbance moving westward through the subtropics – a preferred zone for development this season – late next week. Friday morning’s single track run of the American GFS, which shows a hurricane approaching the southeast a week from this upcoming Saturday, is on an island with its usual outlier-GFS scenario (other model camps and their ensembles do not show a credible hurricane threat). Generally, models suggest a low chance (around 10%) of the disturbance trying to develop as it rounds the subtropical high pressure into next weekend (weekend of August 8th). For now, it’s nothing to worry about, but it’s worth checking back on the trends next week.
Otherwise, models still show the possibility of some development with a tropical wave moving through the Atlantic Main Development Region (between Africa and the Caribbean) as we approach the middle part of August. With that development window being so far out, odds remain low for now.
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