As June transitions to July next week, we’ll be keeping an eye off the shores of the southeast U.S. for an elongated area of low pressure tied to a stalled frontal zone that could spawn an area to watch by the middle to latter part of next week.

Forecast low-level spin for next Wednesday morning (July 1st) from the overnight run of the European forecast model showing a dying frontal zone and areas of embedded spin. Forecast models are indicating low odds for now that one of these areas could organize later next week. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com.

For now, our computer models aren’t particularly bullish on tropical development odds, with Google’s DeepMind’s newest 1,000-member ensemble system showing only about a 10 percent chance of development from off the southeast U.S. to the northern Gulf for the latter part of next week.

Cumulative tropical development odds through Monday, July 5th, from Google DeepMind’s 1,000-member machine learning-based ensemble system. For now, the modeling system shows only about a 10 percent chance of development along an old frontal zone from off the southeastern U.S. to the northern Gulf. Credit: Deelan Jariwala.

Though the odds are low, it’s worth monitoring the trends, as waters are especially warm in the subtropical Atlantic east of Florida – at record to near-record warmth for the time of year – and wind shear will be less of a deterrent than in the main tropical belt where the subtropical jet will be slicing and dicing through would-be storms.

Water temperatures relative to historical records. Areas shaded in red are at near-record warmth for the time of year, with hatched areas at record values for the time of year. Credit: cyclonicwx.com.

Additionally, if anything were to develop, it would be closer to land and likely steered back in the direction of the U.S. for the July 4^th holiday weekend.

For now, it’s not anything to worry about, but something we’ll want to check back on in the coming days and into next week.

Otherwise, as we’ve discussed in newsletters this week, the Atlantic will stay closed for business, with no development expected through the end of the month.

Watching for home brews to start July

A stalled front off the southeast US mid-to-late next week could spawn an area to watch, but for now, development odds are low

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Michael Lowry