Over the weekend the National Hurricane Center added to its tropical outlook the system off the southeast U.S. we began discussing in this newsletter last Thursday.
As we detailed last week, the system is associated with the remnants of a large clustering of thunderstorms that pushed southeastward through the Carolinas late yesterday and is now mixed up with a stalled front over the waters off the southeast U.S.
As we discussed in previous newsletters, models suggest only low development odds, and they’ve only trended downward with the already-low-odds over the past 24 hours.
As of Monday morning, NHC was maintaining a 10% chance of development this week, down slightly from 20% on Sunday.
Marginal conditions ahead
Though stalled fronts like this can be common trigger for early-season development – especially north of the deep tropics in what we call the subtropics – the bar is typically higher to churn out significant development compared to traditional tropical disturbances that roll westward off Africa and can develop later in the season.
Fronts are a natural source of wind shear, which is anathema to would-be tropical systems. So the first thing that would need to happen to promote development is to scour away at the shear. This is a gradual process that often results from the low-pressure system firing off repeated rounds of strong thunderstorms. This mostly commonly happens where water temperatures are warmest.
As we mentioned last week, this is partly why we’re keeping an eye on the area despite the low odds, as waters east of Florida are at near-record or record warmth for the time of year and the Gulf Stream – the deep ribbon of warm waters that runs along the shorelines of the southeastern U.S. – often serves as a fuel source to tap for these type of initially non-tropical low-pressure systems.
In general, however, the farther offshore and north of Florida you go right now, the cooler the waters are. That’s been the directional trend over the past few days, which is partly why the already low development odds have trended down even further. Additionally, the initial overland thunderstorm system that moved off the Carolina coast overnight wasn’t as strong as it could’ve otherwise been, so its starting place is weaker.
Development odds from Google’s DeepMind 1000-member machine learning-based ensemble system fell below 5 percent in its latest run.
A slow loop back toward the Carolinas
The system will get trapped underneath a powerful ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley – the same high-pressure heat dome that’ll cause dangerous heat across much of the central and eastern U.S. this week.
The high-pressure heat dome to its north will steer the low-pressure system toward the west or west-northwest and back toward the coast of southeast Georgia or the Carolinas for Friday into Saturday.
It’s unlikely given the marginal conditions we’ll see much of anything. If it manages to overcome the odds, it’ll likely stay a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm at the high side, with the main development window from this Wednesday (July 1st) through Friday (July 3rd).
It’s unclear if the system will reach the coast or drift just offshore for the weekend, but with so much dry, sinking air inland over the eastern U.S., this will not pose a flood threat regardless of development, unlike Arthur and its remnants along the Gulf Coast a few weeks back.
Otherwise things look to stay quiet for the opening weeks of July for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.
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