The Atlantic continues to percolate into mid-August, with two healthy tropical waves slowly organizing over the open waters between Africa and the Caribbean while short-lived Cristobal unravels over the far North Atlantic Thursday.
Meanwhile, a system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the central Pacific, located about 800 miles southeast of Hawaii, is expected to organize into Tropical Storm Lala on Thursday and threaten the 50th state this weekend.
Tropical twins plodding westward over the open Atlantic with a lackluster future
Two robust tropical disturbances – designated Invest 92L (westernmost) and Invest 94L (easternmost) – continue to gradually organize over the central and eastern Atlantic this morning and could each become a tropical depression or named storm in the coming days. The next names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.
The disturbance with the best development shot in the short term is the westernmost wave (Invest 92L), which has maintained persistent thunderstorms with an organizing circulation.
While 92L will probably get the nod as our next tropical depression or named storm — perhaps as soon as Thursday — like Crisobal before it, it’s time as a tropical cyclone will be short-lived.
By Saturday, it will be moving into the eastern Caribbean where a firehose of wind shear will mean lights out, and the system is expected to wash out over the weekend. 92L or what develops from it will not pose a widespread threat to the islands and may benefit drought-stricken areas of the Caribbean.
Meanwhile AI models that turned quickly bullish on Invest 94L late Tuesday have – in a similar fashion to 92L – since retreated in their enthusiasm. Models do suggest a longer shelf life for 94L than 92L but in general intensity guidance caps it as a low- to mid-tier tropical storm into early next week.
Unlike 92L which will sail deep into the Caribbean as a washed-out wave, 94L could maintain its designation as a tropical depression or tropical storm as it curls near or north of the easternmost Caribbean islands from Tuesday to Thursday next week.
Needless to say, this one has some obstacles ahead, including shear and dry air, which will tap the brakes on any significant organization.
For now, 94L doesn’t look to be a significant threat for the islands even if it develops.
Hawaii in the crosshairs of soon-to-be Lala
A disturbance about 800 miles southeast of Hawai’i – designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C – is likely to become Tropical Storm Lala later Thursday.
Models show Lala slowly strengthening to a strong tropical storm as it nears the Big Island early Saturday local time.
The good news since yesterday is forecast models have trended slightly south and away from the state but there remains a growing threat for impactful weather – including periods of heavy rains on east and south-facing slopes, flash flooding, strong winds, and dangerous surf and large swell along east-facing shorelines – for not only the Big Island but for Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai this weekend.
It’s been nearly two years since a tropical storm watch or warning has been issued for Hawaii and since Hurricane Douglas in 2020 that the state has been under a hurricane watch.
Only 11 tropical storms or hurricanes on record (since 1949) have been observed within 50 miles of the state and Tropical Storm Olivia in 2018 was the last named storm to pass directly over the island chain.
Residents and visitors should continue to closely monitor the forecast over the coming days.
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