Despite impactful flooding last week across the central Gulf Coast from the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur — rainfall totals topping two feet in some places, bringing rainfall totals since May to nearly 50 inches across parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi — it’s been largely crickets across the Atlantic since the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Overall tropical activity from the Gulf and Caribbean to the wider Atlantic is the lowest to-date in 12 years.
Of course, even though we’re already through about 16% of the hurricane season based on the calendar, historically 98% of tropical activity occurs after June.
And as we’ve discussed extensively in newsletters in previous seasons, early season activity (either high or low) isn’t a meaningful predictor for what could happen later in the season.
Only once we get into late July and August does activity to-date start to provide any meaningful clues about what the peak months of the season could hold.
Nevertheless, the paltry start to the Atlantic hurricane season is in line with what we would expect with a much earlier arriving and historically strong El Niño across the eastern Pacific.
The subtropical jet stream has been relentless through the tropical belt of the Atlantic this month — including into parts of the Gulf and Caribbean — and will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future.
Watching off the southeast to start July
As we detailed in Thursday’s newsletter, some of our forecast models – namely Google’s machine learning-based DeepMind hurricane model – are hinting at a small development window off the southeastern U.S. for the middle part of next week.
Odds remain low for now (10% or less), but best chances will come from next Tuesday to Thursday if anything tries to spin up.
The catalyst for what we’ll be watching next week will be a dying front draped over the warm waters off the southeast U.S.
Some models are hinting at a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS — a large cluster of thunderstorms — forming inland, diving off the coast, and getting tangled up on the frontal boundary, which could promote some development.
We won’t know the exact details for a few days, but regardless the odds are low enough that NHC hasn’t added it to its outlook just yet. Given lighter upper-level winds east of Florida along with near-record warmth in the waters for the time of year, it’s worth monitoring the trends.
Interestingly a similar setup (old front with an embedded MCS) is what spawned Hurricane Arthur in 2014, the last hurricane season to start as quietly as 2026.
Even the handful of models that do suggest development don’t point to significant development or a strong system, however, so for now it’s not anything to worry about.
In the meantime, enjoy the quiet weekend and quiet end to June.
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