The area that we first mentioned in this newsletter on Monday and discussed in Tuesday’s newsletter was added to the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook Wednesday morning.
It’s the first area to watch on National Hurrican Center’s Atlantic basin map in over two weeks.
As we’ve detailed in previous newsletters, the area we’re following is an elongated strip of low pressure that’s expected to form this weekend in the elbow of Florida’s Big Bend over the northeastern Gulf.
Unlike most tropical systems whose circulations form first at the surface, this disturbance will initially have spin focused higher up in the atmosphere (at around 20,000 feet) from a mid-level spin that’ll be pinwheeling into the eastern Gulf from the Florida Straits starting on Saturday.
The less conventional setup means that the system will need time to transition down from an initially non-tropical low to a defined surface area of low pressure.
Forecast models are at odds as to whether it’ll eventually do so, and NHC has opened with a low 20% chance of development over the next 7 days, consistent with what model guidance has been advertising this week.
Impediments along the way
As we covered in Tuesday’s newsletter, the atmosphere won’t be in a ripe configuration for quick or significant tropical organization next week.
The main impediment will be moderate to at times strong northerly wind shear from a weakening upper-level low centered over the Florida peninsula late this weekend.
The development window will begin to open up on Sunday and stay largely open through next Tuesday. Models diverge next week as to whether the system slides across northeastern Florida and along the coasts of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas or peels back westward toward the central Gulf Coast.
It’s the westward path over the northern Gulf that would leave it over record to near-record warm waters and the scenario that would raise the specter of pure tropical development.
A system moving northeastward and up the U.S. east coast would lean toward hybrid-like organization, if at all, aided by jet stream winds next week.
In either case, moderate wind shear and bouts of dry, continental air should pump the brakes on organization.
For now, models continue to advertise only low development odds, but it’s worth checking in on the trends this week, mainly because of the outside westward-moving scenarios that loiter it over the northern Gulf into middle next week.
Signal for heavy rainfall next week regardless
The upshot regardless is the potential for heavy rainfall, starting along the northeastern Gulf and west coast of Florida next week.
It’s too soon to pinpoint any potential flood risk, but soaking rains could be beneficial to drought-stricken parts of Florida if spread out over several days.
Those along the northern Gulf Coast will want to check back in the days ahead as we refine the forecast and get a better sense of where the heaviest totals might land next week.
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