It’s been a largely snoozy start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and that doesn’t look to change anytime soon.
We’ve touched on the myriad factors working against development in the Atlantic this season as El Niño charges ahead, including near-record high wind shear in the weeks ahead, which continues to obliterate any tropical contenders across the main development region.
By the end of the upcoming weekend, the Atlantic hurricane season will have notched its least active start since 2009, another strong El Niño year that pitched a named storm shutout until Aug. 12.
We’ve seen other slow starters gain ground quickly in August, like in 2004, which didn’t churn out its first named storm until Aug. 1 but went on to become the sixth most active hurricane season in over 150 years of hurricane record-keeping and included four major hurricane hits on Florida alone. To be clear, nothing of the sort is expected in 2026 (2004 experienced a mild El Niño, but it was of the less common Modoki variety which has little influence on the Atlantic hurricane season), but regardless these are good reminders that activity does eventually pick up, typically by August, even in slow-starting years.
Tropical action stays in the Pacific
Nothing’s brewing for now in the Atlantic. As we mentioned in previous newsletters this week, the only outside shot of development in the Atlantic won’t come until later next week along a stalled front off the U.S. East Coast. Models haven’t trended toward higher development odds and overall chances of tropical development in this area remain very low (10% or less). Regardless, any organizing low-pressure system would move away from the U.S.
Otherwise, tropical activity in the eastern Pacific will be picking up in the weeks ahead, as it often does in that part of the world in July. Thankfully, none of these developing areas poses any threat to land.
Copyright 2026 by WPLG Local10.com - All rights reserved.
