A weak area of low pressure along a stalled front over the western Atlantic, about 400 miles to the southeast of the Carolinas, remains disorganized, and little to no development is expected over the next few days as the system drifts westward toward the southeast U.S.
While the National Hurricane Center was maintaining 10% development odds as of Tuesday morning, most of our reliable forecast guidance – including Google’s DeepMind machine learning-based 1,000-member ensemble system – have dropped the chances of development entirely.
As we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, the low-pressure area is embedded within a front, which is also a natural zone for wind shear, an impediment for tropical development. Additionally, abundant dry air surrounding the low-pressure system isn’t allowing for sustained thunderstorm activity that might otherwise eat away at the nearby wind shear.
The development zone is straddling an area of warmer waters, but cooler waters lurking to its northeast are counteracting the warmer Gulf Stream waters to its west.
In general, the environment is not conducive to the low-pressure system fending off the hostile influence of the non-tropical air in the frontal zone, and overall conditions this week won’t support development.
The low-pressure system will get trapped under the high-pressure heat dome centered over the Ohio Valley this week, which will nudge it slowly back toward the southeastern U.S. and in the direction of coastal Georgia and South Carolina from late Thursday into Saturday.
At that point, however, the combination of increasing wind shear and very dry continental air will wash out the system, and it won’t pose any significant issues for the July 4th holiday.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic should stay dormant for at least the first half of July.
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