For only the third time in reliable records (since at least 1950), the Atlantic hurricane season has fallen silent – absent any active tropical depressions, named storms, or hurricanes – in the week centered on its traditional September 10th peak.
Only 2025 and 1992 went the entire week from September 7th through September 14th without any active tropical systems. We wrote extensively about the historic peak-season dry spell last season, an unexpected stroke of good luck in the middle of a tumultuous season peppered with more Category 5 hurricanes than any other season on record besides 2005. Meanwhile, 1992 was one of the slower hurricane seasons on record, but featured one of the worst hurricane strikes in U.S. history with Hurricane Andrew, the only Category 3 or stronger hurricane that season.
But in 2026, the chill across the Atlantic basin at the typical hurricane season peak feels almost normal, in line with pre-season expectations and on brand with the season’s struggles so far.
Super sheared
While the Super El Niño has supercharged hurricane activity across the Pacific, it’s brought the hammer down on the Atlantic, punishing wannabe hurricanes with the type of wind shear you’d expect during the winter months that makes Christmas hurricanes unheard of (we’ve recorded 7 December hurricanes since 1851, but never on December 25th).
The Great El Niño of 2026-2027 is the real deal and the region we monitor for abnormal warmth over the eastern equatorial Pacific – called the Niño 3.4 region – has never been warmer for the time of year.
Even after normalizing the warmth by stripping out global warming’s influence, 2026 is eclipsing the pace of 1997’s touchstone El Niño.
Most seasonal forecast models predict another degree or more of anomalous warming across the El Niño monitoring region, peaking in December, which would make this El Niño the strongest on record. So in terms of the Atlantic hurricane season, things aren’t getting any easier for would-be storms across the deep tropics.
Hurricane season isn’t canceled (yet)
But don’t be surprised to see a hurricane or two on the back side of the season, especially as fall fronts nestle across the very warm subtropics, a zone less affected by El Niño’s calming influence. Especially here in South Florida where October can throw us late-season curveballs, we want to be careful not to underestimate the lone hurricane that bucks the trends.
But fewer hurricanes is something to celebrate and no hurricanes at all through September 9th is as good as it gets. We’ve earned all the low activity records this season. Let’s just hope this El Niño is as good of a closer as it is a starting pitcher and gets us the final outs we need for our 2nd consecutive season without a mainland U.S. hurricane hit.
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