The first full week of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will close without any named storms.
While that might feel unusual based on recent, early-blooming seasons – with 8 of the last 11 hurricane seasons notching the first tropical or subtropical storm before June 1 – a longer view of history shows us it’s not uncommon.
In fact, over the past 30 years, the typical date of the first Atlantic named storm is June 20. While that’s the average date, there are wide bookends to this first milestone, and in years like 2009, 2004, and 2000 the first named storm didn’t come until August.
So patience is a virtue when it comes to the Atlantic hurricane season.
First shot at development could come late next week
As we detailed in yesterday’s newsletter, a broad area of spin is forecast to set up across Central America by the middle part of next week and conditions could support gradual development in the western Caribbean or southern and central Gulf by late next week.
Long-range models have trended up in their support for development by next weekend (weekend of June 13), but we’re still over a week out and models don’t currently suggest significant organization. Both the European ensemble system and Google’s machine learning-based DeepMind model, historically our two best performing models in the hurricane world, indicate low odds for now.
Most likely, anything that tries to develop will be large and disorganized, as early and mid-June tropical systems tend to be. That said, June tropical systems can be notorious rainmakers so we’ll follow the trends into next week.
For much of the Gulf Coast, including us in Florida, garden-variety soaking rains could be a welcome relief for the ongoing drought.
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