As we’ve anticipated since early last month, the Atlantic is off to a busy start this August but thankfully so far we’ve avoided any threats to land.
If you’ve spent any time on social media this week or perusing long-range computer models, however, you might get the opposite impression – that there’s some big hurricane threat on its way to the U.S. These 10-to-15-day forecasts that go viral every hurricane season aren’t skillful or credible, and they’re certainly not worth your time worrying over.
The wave we’re watching
We do know we’ll have a wave to watch next week moving through the tropical Atlantic. It isn’t even on NHC’s outlook map yet, but it likely will be in the coming days. It’s this tropical wave now rolling off Africa that the long-range forecast models are latching on to, with some scenarios showing a U.S. threat a week and a half or two weeks from now.
Of course, there are lots of other scenarios that show no threat at all and a turn well before the U.S. Neither scenario is more credible at this point because we’re too far out to know with any measurable skill.
We’re still 4 or 5 days out before any realistic chance of something even forming. A tiny deviation on when or where a system forms this far out – imperceptible details we have no way of determining today – can have enormous implications on where it tracks or how strong it gets in two weeks. It’s an exercise in futility to get mired in the details of a 10-plus day model forecast. It’s truly anyone’s guess.
Here’s what we know
There are some important things we can say about this system based on signals we see from forecast ensembles – versions of our models run, in some instances, 100 times to consider how subtle changes might affect the forecast. What we know is there’s a strong signal for eventual development next week, especially as the system tracks farther west into the central Atlantic. Ensembles don’t show it immediately turning out to sea, which is why we’ll need to follow its progress into next week.
This is still a full week out from even reaching the area near or north of the Caribbean islands, so there’s plenty of time to monitor. The good news for the islands is that models have generally trended north with development next week, so we’ll hope those positive trends continue.
Beyond a week, it’s just too early to speculate on whether the system will turn but the ensembles do show a weakness in the high-pressure steering by next weekend which suggests at least some bend north in the track. This of course is a key part of the forecast we’ll be following.
Regardless, conditions look ripe by late next week into next weekend for more significant development over the western Atlantic, which is why we’ll want to check back in on the forecast. The average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11th.
No threats across the rest of the Atlantic
Dexter wrapped up its 3-day journey as a tropical storm yesterday morning, becoming a powerful extratropical storm as it raced through the far north Atlantic.
Meanwhile, odds are dwindling for development of the disorganized low-pressure area between Bermuda and the Carolinas. Though there’s a narrow window for development over the next day or two, models have largely backed off development and trended farther offshore. Regardless, the system will be moving out to sea.
The tropical wave we’ve been following this week through the central Atlantic – designated Invest 96L – remains mostly starved of thunderstorm activity. Though models have soured on development in the short term, by next week conditions will become more conducive for gradual development. Regardless, 96L or what comes of it is expected to turn out to sea before reaching Bermuda.
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