Tropical Storm Jerry brushed the northern Leeward Islands along the northeast edge of the Caribbean on Thursday and early Friday, dragging with it a tail of gusty winds and heavy rains.

Jerry remained disorganized and severely lopsided as it made its closest approach to the islands late Thursday, with unforgiving wind shear shunting the strongest winds and worst weather east of its circulation center.

While its maximum winds ticked down from 65 mph on Thursday to 50 mph early Friday, rainfall forecasts continue to tick up for the islands. Up to 6 inches of heavy rain or more is expected for the easternmost Leeward Islands, including Barbuda, with up to 2 to 4 inches elsewhere, including into Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today into early Saturday.

Jerry rainfall forecast through early Sunday. (NOAA/ National Weather Service)

Although winds at times have gusted above 30 mph in the Leeward Islands, they’ve generally stayed below tropical storm strength (39 mph or stronger). Winds were gusting to near tropical storm strength in Barbuda early Friday and winds gusted to 31 mph in Guadeloupe overnight.

Jerry began its sharp turn north Friday morning and will pull away from the islands later today into Saturday.

Intensity models have fallen noticeably, presumably from the relentless wind shear that’s pinned down Jerry, and the official forecast now keeps Jerry below hurricane strength as it takes a dogleg right over the open Atlantic early next week.

Intensity aids for Jerry. Only a few models now show it reaching hurricane strength, but those models (namely the HAFS and legacy HWRF hurricane model) have been too aggressive in intensity forecasts so far. (cyclonicwx.com)

Forecast models have shifted slightly west since Thursday but Jerry will pass safely east of Bermuda by Sunday into Monday and poses no additional threats to land.

Probability of Jerry’s center passing to within about 100 miles of a given location from our most reliable global forecast models. Forecast models are in good agreement turning Jerry sharply east of Bermuda Sunday into Monday. (Tomer Burg)

Karen forms in uncharted waters

Karen formed late Thursday over the far northeast Atlantic as a subtropical storm, transitioning from a non-tropical low-pressure area along an old cold front.

Karen is rare bird, having formed farther north and east than any other named storm (tropical or subtropical storm or hurricane) on record.

The subtropical storm won’t make it very far, as icy cold waters dipping into the 50s (Fahrenheit) will quickly empty the tank needed to keep its sputtering subtropical engine running.

No tropical development expected elsewhere

As we’ve detailed in previous newsletters, a major and prolonged coastal storm is shaping up for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England for this weekend into early next week.

Though the nor’easter-like storm will bring serious impacts, including days of moderate to major coastal flooding, gusty winds above 55 mph, dangerous surf, and spates of driving, heavy rain to the Eastern Seaboard, it’s expected to stay non-tropical.

Otherwise, things look mostly quiet across the tropical Atlantic into next week. Some of our models are hinting at development in the eastern or central Atlantic late next week into next weekend (Oct. 18), but the signal is weak at best and it’s very late in the season to expect significant development this far east in the Atlantic.

Closer to home – including the western Caribbean and southern Gulf that can be hotbeds for October formation – forecast models are muted for the foreseeable future.

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Jerry bringing heavy rains to Leeward Islands as Karen forms far, far away

Jerry passing to the north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico but heavy rains and a flash flood threat continues into early Saturday

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Michael Lowry