Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to 19N with axis near 32W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 25W and 41W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium change in 7 days.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N35W to 07N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 12W and 26W, and from 03N to 11N between 42W and 58W.

Gulf Of America

Upper-level diverent flow and abundant moisture over the Bay of Campeche continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the western half of the Bay and offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gusty winds and rough seas are likely over this region. Over the E Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas. Otherwise, the Gulf waters remain under the influence of the Bermuda High associated ridge, which is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the NW and eastern half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf region through today while dissipating. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri night, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward.

Caribbean Sea

The Azores-Bermuda High associated ridge extends into the Caribbean. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the central and SW Caribbean, locally strong offshore Colombia where seas are rough to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of basin will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. The high pressure will weaken by Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the basin, leaving gentle breezes and slight seas across the northwest Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas elsewhere, and strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the Azores-Bermuda High associated ridge, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 40W with sligth to moderate seas. East of 40W, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E, and seas are moderate to 7 ft. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough from eastern Cuba to the northern Bahamas offshore waters. The trough is generating scattered showers and tstms over the Great Bahama Bank, and the central and southern Bahamas. In the tropics, the tropical wave described in the section above, is generating fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 8 ft. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas across the region, except for occasional fresh winds pulsing off Hispaniola.

Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos