Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13. 5W, and continues southwestward to 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N31W to 02N36W and to near 01. 5N46. 5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 22W and 41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05S to 01N between 25W and 36W. Similar convection is found from the Equator to 05N between 10W to 22W.

Gulf Of America

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. The stalled frontal boundary that extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan Peninsula has dissipated. A trough is now analyzed in the same area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate northeast winds are concentrated over the southeastern Gulf. Seas of around 6 ft in residual NE swell are over these waters. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are present over the remainder of the basin, except offshore the Texas coast, where moderate south to southwest winds are present. Seas are 2 to 5 ft across the rest of the of the Gulf, except in the NE Gulf where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the E Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. Conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next few days as subtle high pressure prevails. Looking ahead, a strong cold front should reach the N waters on Sun or Sun night with building winds and seas behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama Bank to western Cuba, where it transition to a surface trough that extends to the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated weak showers are possible near the trough. A trough is analyzed over the NE part of the basin. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong trade winds present over south-central Caribbean waters while moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere east of about 80W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the fresh to strong trade winds, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 80W. Light and variable winds are west of 80W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft in southeast swell, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in a north to northeast swell between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with seas to 11 ft in large E swell through the weekend. Some of this large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward to 31N48W and to 26N73W, where it continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Moderate SW winds and seas 8 to 11 ft are found along the front. Satellite imagery reveals a large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along and north of the frontal boundary between 60W and 74W. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N38W is the dominate feature for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Its associated pressure gradient is generally providing for gentle NE to E winds. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in long- period north swell is mixing with an east swell component south of 23N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where fresh to locally strong trade winds are quite expansive in coverage. Gentle to moderate winds are over the remainder of the Atlantic basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight and extend from near 31N75W to the Florida Straits tomorrow morning, moving to 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N60W Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of 65W tomorrow and extending through the weekend. Winds will improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend.

$$ KRV Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster