Special Features

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 15. 2N 56. 1W at 09/0300 UTC or 440 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 24 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 51W and 58W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of Campeche and eastern Mexico. Areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Please, stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, from 20N southward, and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along 10N, where the wave meets the ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, from 21N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is noted 80W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern half of the wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 10N27W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N32W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 23W-39W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico.

Fresh to strong winds are near this convection, along with rough seas. Otherwise, a fairly flat and broad pressure pattern prevails over the remainder of the basin with moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas N of 24. 5N, with gentle to moderate NE-E winds and slight seas S of 24. 5N away from the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue across the SW Gulf associated with a low level trough moving westward across the Bay of Campeche and into coastal Mexico tonight. Winds and seas across the Mexican waters from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo will slowly subside during the next several hours as the trough shifts westward and further inland. Elsewhere, a building high pressure ridge north of the Gulf will promote fresh to strong NE winds over the NE Gulf from Thu night through early Sat. Looking ahead, winds and seas across the entire Gulf should be quiescent from Sun through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details on two waves in the basin.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, with gentle to locally moderate E-SE winds dominating the waters. Seas are slight across the majority of the basin, except higher in and near Atlantic passages due to both NE and SE swells. Other than the convection associated with the W Caribbean tropical wave, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from near the coast to offshore N Colombia, and near the coast of Panama due to the eastward extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Some additional activity is noted N of the Gulf of Honduras to the E of Belize.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 16. 4N 58. 3W Thu morning, near 18. 0N 60. 6W Thu evening, just east of the N Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 20. 1N 62. 2W Fri morning to the north of the N Leeward Islands, then move northward and away from the Caribbean on Fri and Sat. No significant winds or seas from Jerry are expected to impact the Caribbean, except for large E then NE swell bleeding through the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands Thu afternoon through night, and then the Anegada and Mona Passages early Fri through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave moving across the E Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N38W to 28N57W, then a shearline continues from that point to 27N66W. S of the front, recent scatterometer data depicts a trough, which is analyzed from 23N52W to 24N59W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of these features N of 19N between 34W-70W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted across the waters N of the front. A ridge extends across the waters SE of the front and to the N of Jerry from 31N30W to 23N55W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted right under the ridge. Moderate to fresh NE-E trades extend from offshore northern Africa to the SE of the ridge across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with rough seas, except for strong winds near the N coast of Africa and near the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are found across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the waters away from Jerry, except slight seas inside the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 16. 4N 58. 3W Thu morning, near 18. 0N 60. 6W Thu evening, just east of the N Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 20. 1N 62. 2W Fri morning to the north of the N Leeward Islands, reach near 22. 5N 62. 8W Fri evening, near 27. 4N 62. 2W Sat evening, and near 31. 2N 60. 5W Sun evening. Jerry will change little in intensity early next week as it moves eastward across the central Atlantic. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop offshore of central Florida Fri night and move northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds should occur north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri night and Sat. West of a developing cold front, fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will occur across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas from Fri night into Sun morning.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA