WASHINGTON (AP) — Less than a month after Democrats scored a string of victories over Republicans in the Nov. 4 general election, the next test at the ballot box for both parties heading into the 2026 midterm season will be Tuesday in a Tennessee special congressional election on usually reliable GOP turf.

House Republicans look to hold the seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District and pad their narrow 219-213 advantage in the chamber. Democrats hope to extend their winning streak by pulling off an upset in this Middle Tennessee district, where Donald Trump and other GOP candidates routinely win with around 60% of the vote.

Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn are the nominees to replace former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to join the private sector.

Van Epps is a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot who headed the Tennessee Department of General Services under Republican Gov. Bill Lee. With endorsements from both Trump and Green, he easily won the October special primary against 10 opponents.

Behn is a state representative first elected in a 2023 special election. She narrowly won a four-way Democratic primary that featured two other state representatives and a well-funded local businessman. A former political organizer and progressive activist, Behn was described by some state Democrats as “our very own AOC of TN," a reference to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Prominent Van Epps backers have frequently repeated the nickname in support of the Republican nominee.

As the final high-profile head-to-head party matchup of the year, the race has attracted attention from national political figures. Trump phoned into a tele-rally for Van Epps on Nov. 13 just as early voting began. His 2024 presidential election rival, Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris, appeared at a Nov. 18 event in Nashville to encourage Democratic turnout in the special election.

As a result, spending has ballooned. Going into the October primary, Van Epps had spent more than $348,000 and had about $54,000 in the bank. Behn spent more than $168,000 ahead of her primary and had about $20,000 in the bank. As of mid-November, according to the pre-election Federal Election Commission filings, Van Epps had raised an additional $590,000, compared with about $1 million for Behn.

Most of the 7th District has elected only Republicans to Congress for more than a dozen years. The district also includes parts of heavily Democratic Davidson County, which is home to Nashville. The Nashville area once anchored a separate congressional district favorable to Democrats, but state Republicans redrew the lines in 2022 and divided Davidson County among the 7th and two neighboring Republican-friendly districts.

Trump carried the 7th District in 2024 with about 60% of the vote, compared with about 38% for Harris. In the Davidson County portion of the district, Harris received nearly 68% of the vote, which comprised about 22% of total votes in the district. Trump won each of the remaining 13 counties with at least 59% of the vote.

Green was elected twice each under the old and new district boundaries. Under the old lines, he received between 67% and 70% of the vote. His margin of victory narrowed after new lines were drawn in 2022 — he won with 60% of the vote in 2022 and 2024.

The contest marks the year’s fifth special election to fill a vacant congressional seat. An additional vacant seat in a heavily Democratic Houston-area district in Texas will be filled in a runoff election on Jan. 31, 2026, while a recently vacated seat in northern New Jersey held by Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill will be filled next April.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Tennessee, recounts are held only as part of a legal challenge in the courts. There are no automatic recounts, and losing candidates may not request recounts. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Special election day

The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be held Tuesday. Polls in the district close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. ET. Although Tennessee is in two time zones, the 7th District falls entirely within the Central time zone.

What’s on the ballot

The AP will provide vote results and declare a winner in the special congressional election.

Who gets to vote

Any voter registered in the 7th Congressional District may participate in the special election.

What do turnout and advance vote look like

There were about 466,000 registered voters in the 7th Congressional District in the November 2024 general election. Turnout in the congressional race was about 69% of registered voters in the 2024 presidential election year and about 41% in the 2022 midterm elections.

Among the 14 counties located either entirely or partly within the 7th District, about 73% of 2024 general election ballots were cast early in person or by absentee. About 51% of the vote in these 14 counties were cast early or by absentee in the 2022 midterms.

As of Nov. 26, the last day of early voting, just over 84,000 ballots had been cast before the special election.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

The votes were tallied quickly in the Oct. 7 special primaries. The AP first reported results from both the Democratic and Republican primaries at about 8:05 p.m. ET from Perry County, about five minutes after polls closed. The vote count was completed in both contests at 10:28 p.m. ET with the final vote update from Humphreys County.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 7th District congressional race at 8:03 p.m. ET from Perry County. The election night tabulation ended at 12:36 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 336 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.

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