Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed along 40W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 15N17W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to Brazil at 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ and 360 nm S of the ITCZ to the W of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure near Cape Canaveral, Florida to off the Florida Gulf Coast near Cape Coral the N-central Yucatan Peninsula at 21. 5N88W where the tail end stalls. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted on local NWS radars over portions of SW Florida and offshore ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are N of 25N between 85W and 90W where the pressure gradient remains slightly tight, with seas of 3-6 ft there. Mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds are elsewhere W of the front, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 2 ft or less are ahead of the front, except higher near any of the isolated convection.

For the forecast, a cold front over the SE Gulf will exit the waters tonight. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front through Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the S-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean from 11N to 18N to the E of 81W, along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean, and the SW Caribbean S of 10N. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Mon night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

1011 mb low pressure is located offshore Jacksonville, Florida near 30. 5N79W extending to a 1010 mb low pressure near Cape Canaveral, Florida along a cold front. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 60W ahead of the lows and front, with isolated to widely scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 22N to 28N and W of 60W. Moderate to fresh SE-S flow covers the waters E of the Bahamas to about 64W, along with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere across the basin, a ridge extends from 1035 high pressure centered well NNW of the Azores through 31N40W to 29N70W ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between lower pressures near the monsoon trough over western Africa and the ridging supports fresh to strong winds from 10N to 23N between Africa and 45W, along with 6-10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 6-9 ft seas are elsewhere S of 23N. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters N of 23N and E of 65W, along with 5-7 ft seas in N-NE swell, except lower seas at 3-5 ft between 50W and 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary off NE Florida will linger through Thu before merging with a weak cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu. The front will extend from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.

Posted 18 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky