NEW YORK (AP) — The progressive movement may already have hit its high point in the 2026 midterms. Or this may be the beginning of a much more powerful shift as voters, eager for change, decide to embrace far-left populism on a national scale.

It depends upon who you ask within a Democratic Party that is undeniably locked in a tug-of-war between emboldened progressives demanding radical change and the party's pragmatic establishment.

Progressives expect their newest candidate in Maine, former state lawmaker Troy Jackson, will clinch the Democratic nomination Saturday to replace Graham Platner on the November ballot, giving the party a chance to recover from Platner's downfall earlier this month. Next up will be August Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota — contests that put the intraparty divide on clear display less than four months before the midterms are decided. All three states will be important in the fight for Senate control, raising the stakes over who Democrats should nominate.

“We’re seeing the pendulum shift from right to left. That’s ultimately what this midterm election is about,” said Joseph Geevarghese, who leads Our Revolution, the progressive organization founded by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders a decade ago. “We're in a transitional moment in national politics.”

On the other side of the same party, establishment leaders, including the Democratic leadership in the House and Senate, believe that the progressive movement's momentum this summer will ultimately hurt the party's chances in the general election this fall. Democrats are in position to win control of at least one chamber in Congress given President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, the unpopular war in Iran and surging costs.

Count Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, as one of those fighting to stop his party's ascendant progressive wing from undermining their midterm chances.

“It is an enormous mistake and an enormous risk for them to be engaged in an effort to push the party to the left,” Bennett said. Sanders' brand of far-left politics, he added, “is not what America is asking for.”

Voters will ultimately decide who is right this fall — and the results could shape policy and politics inside the Democratic Party for years to come.

In the meantime, as establishment Democrats worry from Washington, Sanders and his allies like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are barnstorming through key swing states to harness the energy of the party's grassroots.

Republican officials were watching with glee.

“Socialists have gone from a sideshow in the Democrat Party to the main event," said Bernadette Breslin, spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Sanders rallied for progressives in Michigan and Minnesota

On Monday night in Minneapolis, Sanders railed against billionaires and corporations as he campaigned for Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota's lieutenant governor who has aligned herself with his populist movement in Minnesota's contentious primary for U.S. Senate.

“When you stand up to these billionaires, as you will, and when you defeat them, you will bring hope and inspiration to people all across our country and in fact, all over the world,” Sanders said.

Flanagan faces U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, who is backed by much of the party's establishment in a race that has brought in millions of dollars from super PACs and other independent groups backing both candidates.

“I want you to know that we have an opportunity to change the way that Washington works,” Flanagan said.

When they were done, Sanders, Flanagan, U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar and retiring Sen. Tina Smith locked arms as John Lennon's “Power to the People” thundered from the speakers.

The scene was similar a day earlier in Michigan, where Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives campaigned with Abdul El-Sayed, whom many centrist Democrats worry is too far left for a must-win seat for Democrats in a battleground state.

The progressive movement has also seen setbacks

Dozens of progressive candidates up and down the ballot aligned with Sanders, including more than 30 backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, have won Democratic nomination contests in recent weeks — in some cases defeating sitting members of Congress.

There have been setbacks, however, none more painful for the progressive movement than Platner's implosion in Maine.

Platner, a Sanders acolyte and political newcomer who dominated Maine's sitting governor in the Democratic Senate primary, was forced to drop out barely a week ago after a sexual assault allegation emerged from his former girlfriend. Platner has denied the accusation, which many allies deemed credible.

Geevarghese described the situation as “a bump in the road” that would not cause any lasting damage for the broader progressive movement.

Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., a 2028 presidential prospect aligned with the progressive wing, acknowledged that he made a mistake by supporting Platner when so little was known about his background.

“It’s an important lesson of being more aware of the red flags of candidates,” Khanna said, while insisting that the progressive movement “is so much bigger than any individual.”

“Despite a very flawed candidate, the platform of Medicare for all and no foreign wars and taxing billionaire wealth was so strong that he did well,” Khanna said of Platner. “No one candidate is a test for the progressive movement.”

But the fallout from Platner’s campaign renewed a long-running debate among Democratic establishment figures over whether the party’s progressive wing is hurting its chances of winning competitive general election races.

The divide has been especially apparent in the Senate, where some rank-and-file senators have backed progressive candidates at odds with Schumer and other party leaders. Platner’s collapse sparked behind-the-scenes finger pointing and prompted some establishment figures to more actively step into other competitive primaries.

In Michigan, for example, Sen. Gary Peters endorsed Haley Stevens last week after previously saying he wouldn’t get involved.

“We do want to have candidates who are fully vetted running in these high-profile races,” Peters said.

Bennett, of Third Way, says that it's all about winning in November. That's not to say he thinks it's impossible for Democrats to win with a nominee like El-Sayed on the ballot.

“In this cycle, with the war raging again, anyone might be able to beat a Republican in a place like Michigan,” he said. “But it sure as hell is going to be harder.”

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Associated Press writers Joey Cappelletti in Washington and Jonathan J. Cooper in Phoenix contributed.

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