As group play winds down at the World Cup, the biggest intrigue might be not who finishes first in a four-team group.
It’s who finishes third.
Teams that are first and second in their groups move on automatically to the Round of 32. The U.S., Canada and Mexico, co-hosts of the tournament, have all advanced, along with France, Germany, Brazil, Norway and others.
The U.S. will face Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday in Santa Clara, California, while Canada heads to Los Angeles to face South Africa on Sunday. Other marquee matchups are set, including Morocco versus the Netherlands and Japan versus Brazil.
Third-place is no guarantee. The eight best third-place teams also get in, with ties broken by goals scored and goal differential if necessary.
“I personally didn’t want to end up in this kind of situation, where we have to wait and see if we will reach the knockouts," South Korea forward Son Heung-min said. "It’s disappointing that we didn’t get the outcome we deserved, considering the amount of hard work we’ve done, but it’s out of our hands now and we will have to accept our fate, whatever it will be.”
Teams with four points — a win, a draw and a loss — almost certainly make the Round of 32. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden and Ecuador already advanced that way, and Paraguay is poised to join that group, which would mean four qualifiers left.
That leaves eight other third-place teams for the final four spots.
Some matches to watch closely Friday on the third-place front:
Group G
Egypt (1-0-1) vs. Iran (0-0-2): Egypt would likely be a third-place qualifier even with a loss, provided that loss isn’t by a ton of goals. Iran would be heavily favored to advance as a third-place team with a tie. (Belgium and New Zealand each has a mathematically possible chance of finishing third in Group G.)
Group H
Cape Verde (0-0-2) vs. Saudi Arabia (0-1-1): Cape Verde will advance (as a first- or second-place team) with a win. The Saudis need a win to advance, as well.
Uruguay (0-0-2) vs. Spain (1-0-1): Uruguay would likely qualify as a third-place team with a tie. If it loses, it goes home.
Group I
Senegal (0-2-0) vs. Iraq (0-2-0): If there’s a tie, both teams would be eliminated. If someone wins, that team has a chance (with three points, a 1-2-0 record and its status hinging on goal differential) and the loser would be eliminated. Scotland really needs an Iraq win or a tie here to help its fledgling chances.
Here are the Round of 32 matchups already set:
US vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, July 1
The Americans had their powerful momentum from two consecutive victories stalled in the loss to Turkey. But in the knockout round, they’ll face a Bosnia-Herzegovina team that is 62nd in the FIFA rankings — the lowest-ranked World Cup qualifier from Europe. Bosnia finished third in Group B with four points. U.S. star Christian Pulisic entered as a substitute in the second half against Turkey. He had not played since leaving an opening win over Paraguay at halftime with a calf injury. “We play every game like a knockout game,” said U.S. midfielder Sebastian Berhalter, who scored against Turkey. “You saw that in our intensity and the way we worked. For us, it’s keep doing what we’ve been doing.”
South Africa vs. Canada, June 28
These nations have already made history. It'll be the first time both are in the knockout stage of the World Cup. Co-host Canada advanced as runner-up in Group B with four points — one win, one draw and one loss. South Africa was runner-up in Group A, also with four points, including a surprising win over South Korea.
Brazil vs. Japan, June 29
Japan advanced as Group F runner-up with a hard fought 1-1 draw against Sweden and the Samurai Blue's reward is a knockout match against five-time World Cup champion Brazil. It'll be a full-circle moment for Japan, which welcomed Brazilian soccer legend Zico in 1991. He was brought in to professionalize the country's new domestic league and support Japan's successful bid to co-host the World Cup in 2002. Now, the Japanese have a chance to show how far they've come against a country that has set the standard.
Netherlands vs. Morocco, June 29
The Netherlands won Group F after a draw with Japan and outscoring Sweden and Tunisia by a combined 8-2. Morocco went unbeaten to finish second in Group C in pursuit of becoming the first African winner of the World Cup. Morocco reached the semifinals four years ago in Qatar.
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