Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ near the south end of wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W-43w from 15N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed from 07N to 10N between 40W and 43W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed S of 15.5N between 69W and 76W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W-88W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward, extending across Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed across eastern portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09.5N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03.5N northward to 11N and E of 24W. No other significant convection is seen in the region.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean from 10N73W to low pressure 1012 mb near 11.5N78W to 11.5N81W and across northern Costa Rica. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed across areas S of 13N and W of 74W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough over the central US extends S-SW into the north central Gulf, and is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NE Gulf, generally to the N of 28N. More widespread and significant convection is occurring across much of the SE U.S. A surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf along 94W-95W with a few showers near the trough axis. The rest of the Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the N central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico is resulting in moderate to fresh SE to S winds over much of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail, locally 3-4 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening through next week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the eastern Gulf to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf of America through the middle of next week, with gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for details on convection in the Caribbean.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic W-SW through the Windward Passage and into the NE Caribbean west of Jamaica. This feature is supporting convection over Central America and near the monsoon trough. A broad Atlantic ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic basin, extending from the central Atlantic along 32N westward across Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and lower pressure over Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, extending westward to just E of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to persist across the central and west-central Caribbean through the middle of next week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south- central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell will continue in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean early next week after the passage of a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern Caribbean into Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, centered on 1028 mb high pressure near 32N54W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W, becoming moderate NE winds between 20W and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist south of 25N through the middle of next week as high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. Locally strong winds will be possible just north of Hispaniola by the middle of next week. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore of Florida into the middle of next week as low pressure continues over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through next week.

Posted 1 day, 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling