Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 05N37W and then from 05N40W to 04N48W. A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 23W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low in the northern Gulf continues to generate popcorn showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern half of the basin. Similar convection is also noted in the Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a ridge extends from the central Atlantic into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m) west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Abundant tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras, also producing heavy rain in Central America. The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m). The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras.

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in the north-central, eastern and western Caribbean, especially south of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1031 mb high pressure near France to Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are found east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the middle of the week as the Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado