Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03.5N26W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N26W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 13.5W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted west of 91W, due to the pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high pressure over eastern Gulf and lower pressures over central Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas prevail east of 91W. A diurnal trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are depicted from the coast of Texas to 23N and west of 94W.

For the forecast, high pressure will be the main feature controlling the weather pattern across the Gulf through late Fri. Its associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning. East winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Fri in association with a diurnal trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across the Straits of Florida through Fri night. Elsewhere, winds will diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the northern Gulf on Sat before shifting east of the basin by Sun night. High pressure will then build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to fresh to strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the gradient tightens.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a weak 1021 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a 1010 mb low pressure offshore Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. In additionally, this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Dominican Republic and offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near the monsoon trough off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama south of 12N. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough that extends from the western Atlantic to the western Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the north central and northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and across portions of Hispaniola.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage tonight. At the same time, fresh northeast winds are expected south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata, and in the Lee of Cuba. Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize through the Windward Passage again Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected over the basin into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A middle to upper level trough extends W-SW across the Hispaniola. This feature is creating unstable atmospheric conditions to the south and east of it, and supporting active weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of 22N between Hispaniola and 63W. A 1014mb low pressure has been analyzed near 28N51W. A surface trough extends southwestward from the low pressure to the eastern Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward to 31N between 42W and the low pressure at 51W. Northeast of the low, stationary front continues from 26N61W to beyond 31N53W. Northwest of the area, a 1021 mb high is centered near 31.5N72W. The pressure gradient between the high and these features is producing moderate to fresh NE winds to the west of the low and surface trough, with strong NE winds north of the front between 55W and 61W. Seas 5 to 7 ft prevail to the east of the Bahamas. Gentle winds are noted N of 29N and also N of the Bahamas, where seas are 3 to 4 ft.

Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure is east of the front near 32.5N34W, and a 1004 mb gale center is north of Madeira near 36N11.5W. This pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 13 ft seas over the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 32W, reaching near gale force on the south and eastern side of the low. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail between 32W and the central Atlantic surface low and trough. Seas across this region are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas to rough are expected first over the E side of the trough on Fri, then over the NW part of it on Fri night and Sat due to the pressure gradient between the trough/low and high pressure to the N. The low should dissipate by Sun, and the trough is forecast to drift westward over the forecast waters early next week. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas will persist near the northern end of the trough axis affecting mainly the NE waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will emerge off the northeast Florida coast late Sat night into Sun where it may dissipate.

$$ KRV

Posted 5 minutes ago