Special Features

Tropical Storm Barry is centered near at 29/0000 UTC or 50 nm SE of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Barry is nearing the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall within the tropical storm warning area in the next several hours and then move inland over eastern Mexico later tonight. Little change in strength is anticipated before Barry makes landfall, but rapid weakening is expected to begin after the storm moves inland. Barry is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 25N and west of 93W. Seas to 12 ft are within 30 nm NE quadrant of Barry's center.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W and extends southward from 14N. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 20W and 24W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 32W from 18N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. A few showers is near the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 30W and 35W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave axis is noted along 56W from 14.5N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A well-defined tropical wave continues to move westward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis extends from the Mona Passage to western Venezuela, where it is enhancing some convective activity. Once again, scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the wave axis, with moderate to fresh winds on either side of it.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W and continues W, then SW to near 06N39W. The ITCZ continues from 06N39W to 04N50W. Convection is limited.

Gulf Of America

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Barry located about 85 nm SE of Tampico, Mexico.

Elsewhere outside of the tropical cyclone, a ridge dominates the Gulf of America region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Barry supports an area of fresh to locally strong SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data also indicate an area of fresh to strong SE to S winds off the coast of S Texas and NE Mexico, likely associated with the convection there. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are seen across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are to 8 ft in the NE quadrant of Barry. Slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the southern parts of the N Gulf states and NE Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are also flared-up over Florida. Gusty winds to gale force could be associated with the thunderstorms.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Barry is near 21.2N 96.9W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Barry will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.0N 97.9W Mon morning, inland to 22.8N 98.8W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early this week before retreating eastward.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds are noted. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba, and in the vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua where slight seas prevail. An upper-level low spinning over the central Bahamas is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through the week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details.

High pressure and its associated ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area, with a 1023 mb center located near 29N63W, and another center of 1021 mb situated NE of the Azores. This system has weakened since yesterday as a frontal boundary reaches the Azores. Moderate to fresh trades are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge S of 20N and W of 45W, while moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic based on satellite derived wind data. Gentle to moderate winds are observed N of 20N. Seas are in general moderate. As previously mentioned, an upper-level low centered over the central Bahamas is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late in the week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

Posted 1 day, 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr