Special Features

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 23. 6N 57. 2W at 20/0300 UTC or 460 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking to around 22 ft just northeast of the center. Gabrielle is still being impacted by westerly shear, and is partially obscured under a large area of thunderstorms that extends to 90 nm outward primarily in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Gabrielle will continue to move to the NW through today, then turn more northward. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sun night and on Mon. Gabrielle is expected to gradually strengthen as the environmental conditions become more conducive during the next few days, and may reach hurricane strength by Sun. Moderate- sized SE swell generated by Gabrielle is expected to reach Bermuda by early Sat morning and build through the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W, south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1013 mb surface low associated with it is analyzed across the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 12N between 23W and 24W.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 13N to 16N between 39W and 41W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 77W between Jamaica and Colombia. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 17N between 75W and 79W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to the 1013 mb low pressure over the Cabo Verde Islands, then on to 12N25W and to 11N35W. The ITCZ extends from 11N35W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 25W and 35W, and from 06N to 08N between 50W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure is over the basin, between a 1017 mb high center located off the western Florida Panhandle, and a trough over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern was supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the loop current just to the north of the Yucatan Channel in the south- central Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will control the general weather pattern through tonight before shifting NE and weakening into next week. Unsettled weather will continue over the far southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Channel tonight as ample moisture and a nearby trough remain in place. With Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle over the Atlantic lifting northward through Mon night, Atlantic ridging will build westward along the northern Gulf early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

An upper-level trough continues to extend across the Atlantic from south of Bermuda to the Mona Passage, then across the central Caribbean to eastern Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between Jamaica, Haiti, and off eastern Cuba, on the northern end of the tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient in place is promoting generally light to gentle E to SE winds across the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades along with moderate seas are expected through Sun, increasing slightly thereafter basinwide as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of TS Gabrielle moving through the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the S-central portion of the basin Mon night through at least Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and on the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough remains anchored along roughly 73W/74W through the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm east of the trough, and east of the central Bahamas. Moderate 10 to 15 kt NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted west of the trough. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted between 65W and the trough. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with T. S. Gabrielle extends from 20N to 31N between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, the pattern is dominated by 1030 mb high pressure near the Azores, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move to 24. 7N 58. 3W Sat morning, 26. 3N 59. 6W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 28. 0N 60. 7W Sun morning, 30. 0N 61. 3W Sun evening, 32. 0N 60. 8W Mon morning, and 34. 5N 58. 2W Mon evening. Gabrielle will change little in intensity as it moves to 38. 9N 49. 0W by late Tue. A surface trough will persist off the SE U. S. coast to the northern Bahamas through at least the weekend enhancing convection in the vicinity. Otherwise, in the wake of Gabrielle, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward generally providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the eastern portion into midweek.

Posted 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen