Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly diminishing tomorrow. Expect rough to locally rough seas with the peak winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFEP2. shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis is along 26. 5W south of 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A well defined tropical wave is along 47W south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Another tropical wave is analyzed near 62W entering the far eastern Caribbean Sea, and extends southward into far eastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The tropical wave previously located along 85W is relocated farther E along 82W based on tropical wave diagnostic and surface observations. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N28W to 09N45W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 21W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 36W and 42W, and also from 08N to 13N between 42W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

A weak ridge continues the dominate the Gulf region producing a gentle to moderate wind flow, except moderate to fresh in the central Bay of Campeche due to a weak surface trough analyzed from along 94W. Slight to moderate seas are noted across the basin, highest in the central Bay of Campeche. An upper-level low over the western Gulf is enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the basin, more concentrated over the Bay of Campeche and near the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the diurnal trough moving westward from the Yucatan peninsula will cause fresh NE to E winds offshore of the peninsula nightly through the weekend. An upper-level low will cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf for the next couple of days. Elsewhere, winds and seas should be quiescent.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning.

A tight pressure gradient is present over the central Caribbean due to the Bermuda-Azores high north of the area and lower pressure over northern South America resulting in fresh to near gale-force winds there. Rough seas dominate this area. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas, except gentle to moderate in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over portions of the western Caribbean, particularly W of 85W, including in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly diminishing tomorrow. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A vigorous tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the E Caribbean on Thu and Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS and the Geocolor satellite imagery show abundant African dust over this area into the eastern Caribbean.

As it is normal for this time of the year, the Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of its associated ridge, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis, mainly N of 25N. Seas are generally moderate across the basin, except slight to moderate from 25N to 29N under the ridge and corresponding lighter winds. An exception is fresh to strong N-NE winds from offshore northern Africa near the Canary and Madeira Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands and just WNW of there. An upper-level low spinning between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas is generating some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging associated with the Bermuda- Azores High will remain farther south than usual - near 27N. Waters north of 29N will have moderate to fresh SW to W winds beginning tomorrow night for the next several days. Additionally, fresh to strong trades will continue just north of Hispaniola and over the approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky