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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Central And East Atlantic Significant Swell Event

A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N57W. A surface trough extends from 30N56W to 18N54W to 13N65W. A broad ridge NE of the low/trough is inducing a tight pressure gradient in the area. Scatterometer data depicted an area of 20-30 kt E to SE winds covering roughly the waters N of 20N between 45W and 57W. Seas within this zone are 10 to 14 ft per altimeter data. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted east of the trough from 20N to 31N between 40W and 54W.

Another area of seas of 12 to 19 ft is noted in the eastern Atlantic N of a front that extends from 31N09W to 24N27W to 31N44W. Strong to near-gale NW winds are noted near N of the front in the Canary Islands area.

The surface low pressure will meander today and dissipate. The east Atlantic front will also continue to drift eastward and weaken. Winds and seas are expected to subside by Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01S25W. The ITCZ continues from 01S25W to 01S38W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted in the vicinity of the boundaries E of 12N and W of 36W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure of 1023 mb located over NE Louisiana dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail across the SE Gulf waters in the wake of a cold front currently extending across the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf will subside today as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of a front currently over the W Caribbean. The high pressure will shift E and support fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold front may enter the western Gulf by Tue enhancing winds/seas.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to eastern Honduras. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted behind the front, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere W of the front. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. North swell that has been impacted the Caribbean Passages continue to produce seas up to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean E of 68W. Otherwise, seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to follow the front across the W Caribbean today. Winds and seas will diminish this afternoon. High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds and seas will then diminish by Sat night. Moderate N swell moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually subside through today. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola this weekend as the high pressure settles NE of the Bahamas.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell event.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N72W to 22N78W. Strong to near-gale NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted in the wake of the front. Between this system and the low pres producing the swell event described above, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 37N42W. Winds are light to gentle under the influence of this high. Seas range from 5 to 8 ft between 60W-75W.

In the eastern Atlantic outside of the swell event area, high pressure extends across the remainder of the eastern and central Atlantic. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail with 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will meander then weaken to a trough and move slowly NE and east of 55W tonight. Large northerly swell dominates the waters E of 50W and will gradually subside through Sat. An area of strong to near gale S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms remains active to the east of a surface trough along 52W, N of 20N. The W Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by midday today, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and settle NE of the Bahamas Sun and Mon.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era