Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave from 02N to 05N between 24W and 31W.

An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward Islands S of 13N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 08N between 50W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, moving into Central America, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting waters near Costa Rica and Panama in association with this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 00N50W. Convection near these features is primarily associated with the Atlantic tropical waves, described in the section above.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate the basin, although a cluster of thunderstorms has moved offshore the Middle Texas coast early this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge into the Gulf through the week. Into Wed, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, pulsing to strong each evening offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure over Mexico and Texas. Late this week, the pressure gradient will relax and even more tranquil marine conditions will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection continues in the Windward Passage and between Cuba and Jamaica due to upper level divergence. The other convection in the basin, offshore Central America, is due to a tropical wave described in the section above. High pressure of 1029 mb centered near Bermuda is aiding in a pressure gradient that supports strong winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas of up to 11 ft accompany these winds. Elsewhere, fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, except for gentle to moderate winds in the Lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into tonight, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

Aside from some scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas associated with a weak surface trough, the basin is void of thunderstorm activity. A cold front has slipped S of 31N, and extends from 31N45W to 29N60W. Some fresh SW winds are present E of this boundary to 35W, N of 28N. Otherwise, subtropical ridging dominates, bringing light to gentle winds and moderate seas N of 23N, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to the south. E of the Lesser Antilles, decaying easterly swell is leading to some rough seas, that extend E to 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola into tonight. A surface trough from near Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving the basin dominated by tranquil marine conditions into late this week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik