Computer forecast models are in general agreement that Tropical Disturbance #1 has a decent chance to develop into at least a strengthening storm over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico.
This is the same system we have been tracking since it was in the Caribbean a few days ago as a barely distinguishable disturbance. The upper-level winds have been quite hostile, but the pattern is forecast to flip when the system gets over the Gulf. It appears there will be a window of time Sunday or Monday when the pattern will be conducive for the disturbance to organize and strengthen.
The steering currents are expected to generally push the system south to north in the western Gulf. If the computer-model forecasts are right, the system, whatever it is, will track parallel to or over the northern Mexican or Texas coast. A lot of moisture will be pulled north, which will impact that entire coastline and likely Louisiana as well by the middle of next week.
Everybody along the western Gulf coast should stay informed over the next few days until we see how things develop. As often happens with weak or developing disturbances, the computer model forecasts are jumping around between a significant storm and not much. They are consistent about bringing lots of moisture north, however.
In the North Atlantic, Larry is just about to transition into a winter-type storm. It is speeding away from Atlantic Canada and will soon be off the map.
Disturbance #2 is very weak and is not expected to develop anytime soon. It will likely proceed west as a moisture surge. When it gets near Florida or the Southeast coast late next week, we’ll keep an eye on it.
Disturbance #3 is very well developed. The National Hurricane Center gives it a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression as it tracks off to the west. It appears there will be tough sledding ahead, however. The atmospheric conditions are currently forecast to become hostile in a few days.
Disturbance #4 is the next system in line. It’s still over Africa but is forecast to come off the coast farther south, so it might avoid the dry air that is forecast to make life difficult for Disturbance #3. As always, however, it’s too early to make any definitive statements about it except that it’s likely to track off to the west.
The bottom line: The tropics are appropriately busy for the peak of hurricane season.