Every Feb. 2, Punxsutawney Phil emerges to predict whether winter will stick around or spring will arrive early. While the tradition is fun, Phil’s accuracy has been hit-or-miss — and this year, South Florida’s temperatures are making headlines of their own.
How Accurate is Phil, Really?
Looking at the past decade, Phil hasn’t been particularly reliable.
- Correct predictions: 2016, 2020, 2024
- Incorrect predictions: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025
That gives Phil an accuracy rate of around 30%, with many of his shadow-based forecasts not aligning with how winter actually unfolded.
The Coldest Groundhog’s Day Ever Recorded for parts of South Florida
This Groundhog’s Day stands out for another reason — it marks the coldest Groundhog’s Day ever recorded across a portion of South Florida.
Here are the record-setting or record-tying lows:
- Miami: 38° (record set in 1898)
- Fort Lauderdale: 37°, breaking the previous record of 38° set in 1979
- Key West: 49°, breaking the previous record of 51° set in 1980
These temperatures are a reminder that while snow isn’t in our forecast, early February can still deliver historic cold when strong Arctic fronts push deep into the region.
Some Relief Mid-Week — Briefly
There is good news ahead.
By mid-week, we’ll see a brief warming trend, with highs climbing back into the 70s across South Florida. Enjoy it while it lasts — another cold front will follow, bringing another dip in temperatures later in the week.
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