An area of disturbed weather moving through the western Caribbean is expected to cross into the Bay of Campeche in the lower reaches of the Gulf this weekend where it could gradually organize if the system remains over the waters north of Mexico.
For now, models are tepid on development, but because of the unique catcher’s-mitt-like geography of the Bay of Campeche, systems notoriously outperform model expectations in the region, so it’s something to monitor if a low-pressure area takes shape tomorrow and Sunday.
Hostile wind shear will keep the thunderstorms disorganized today but come tomorrow and Sunday, the disturbance will be moving under a pocket of lighter upper-level winds west of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, which could allow for gradual organization.
Regardless of development, heavy rains will spread into Central America today and southeastern Mexico over the weekend. Steering currents will move the system west-northwest toward northeastern Mexico by early Monday where inclement weather could reach as far north as the Rio Grande Valley in extreme South Texas.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic should stay mostly quiet, with conditions largely unfavorable for development into the first week of July.
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