Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated around an area of low pressure – now designated Invest 92L – centered about 100 miles off the coast of northeast Florida.
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Current satellite trends and model guidance suggest a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form later Friday or on Saturday before moving inland over the Carolinas by Sunday into early Monday.
The next name on the list is Chantal.
Air Force hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly from Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi around noon Friday to investigate, and should arrive into the system shortly before 2 p.m. ET.
The good news is environmental conditions will only marginally support development over the next day or two before the system moves inland.
Modest wind shear will remain in the vicinity as dry air lurks nearby, helping to keep what forms in check. Intensity guidance maintains a tropical depression or low-grade tropical storm this weekend.
As we’ve discussed in newsletters this week, the main threat regardless will be periods of heavy rainfall stretching from the Florida peninsula today into the coastal Carolinas this weekend.
Though heavy at times, widespread flash flooding isn’t anticipated and the rainfall should be primarily a disruption for the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
A moderate risk of rip currents will also pose a risk to beachgoers from east-central Florida northward into the Outer Banks of North Carolina this weekend.
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