The central Pacific Ocean is in the midst of an unusual tropical cyclone outbreak, recording two concurrent named storms for the first time since 2015 and its first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane since Dora in August 2023.
Hurricane Iona rapidly strengthened 65 mph over the past 24 hours, from a 50-mph tropical storm to a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane, a rare rate of strengthening reserved only for the top 1% of hurricanes.
Iona blew through initial forecasts that predicted it to peak as a 60-mph tropical storm.
Forecasters were tipped off to the unforeseen strengthening Monday morning from microwave satellite – the same type of satellites being permanently unplugged this week by the U.S. Navy – and quickly adjusted their forecasts to account for the sudden structural improvements undetected by conventional satellite.
Both Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli, which formed about 350 miles east-northeast of Iona on Monday, will slide well south of Hawaii and pose no threat to land.
The central Pacific basin – which extends west of 140°W to the International Dateline – can see a wide range of activity depending on the year. Generally, the basin observes its most active hurricane seasons during El Niño years like 2015, 2009, and 1997 when it recorded 16, 7, and 9 tropical cyclones respectively.
On average, the central Pacific sees only 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (tropical depression, storms, or hurricanes) each season and around 3 named storms (tropical storm or hurricanes). NOAA predicted a less active central Pacific hurricane season in 2025, with a range of 1-4 tropical cyclones across the basin.
Spunky waves making their way through the Atlantic
With August only days away, the tropical Atlantic is certainly starting to look like it. Several impressive tropical waves are dotting the deep tropical belt west of Africa.
At least for now, the waves don’t pose a significant development threat, but as we discussed in previous newsletters, we’ll need to track them a little more carefully into the western part of the Atlantic as we turn the calendar to August and conditions become more favorable for development.
While it’s important not to get mired in the details of long-range weather models, the overall trend continues to point to an uptick in activity across the Atlantic over the next few weeks. Stay vigilant, as the busiest stretch of the season is just ahead of us.
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