Erin continues to plot a course just north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the upcoming weekend as it steadily strengthens into the first hurricane of the season by Friday.
Though the core of the storm is expected to stay north of the easternmost Caribbean islands, trailing rainbands and gusty squalls may affect portions of these areas beginning in earnest on Saturday and continuing through the weekend.

Erin is still expected to take the escape hatch north before reaching the U.S., though there’s been some shift westward in the model projections since Wednesday which could be a good development for Bermuda if it keeps Erin far enough west between the archipelago and the U.S. next week.

Bermuda especially will want to check back frequently on the forecast into the weekend.
The Euro’s jump west
On Wednesday afternoon, the European model made a dramatic jump westward from previous runs in Erin’s track next week.

But the so-called deterministic or operational run – the headline scenario based on our best understanding of the atmosphere – was on the far left side of the ensemble envelope for the European modeling system. This indicated that the left jump closer to the U.S. remained an outlier scenario.

Overall there has been some shift west since yesterday in the consensus track for Erin, but the forecasts for next week still keep the future hurricane safely east of the mainland U.S. and Erin isn’t expected to pose a direct threat to Florida.
If anything, the westward shift may be a positive development for Bermuda, which has been in the crosshairs for next week.

Of course, the strong (dirty) side of the hurricane is to the east, so we’ll need to follow Erin’s progress for Bermuda into the weekend in case it doesn’t spare them a closer blow.
Since yesterday, the models have flopped again, with the Euro now east and the American GFS west of the Euro for next week.


The consensus, however, hasn’t appreciably changed and the bottom line for the U.S. is Erin is unlikely to pose a direct threat. That said, we can expect powerful rip currents and dangerous waves to be a problem for beaches up and down the east coast due to Erin’s long-period swell.
Hurricane hunters set to fly Erin for the first time today
Hurricane hunter airplanes deployed to Barbados at the entrance of the Caribbean on Wednesday to prepare for routine surveillance of Erin beginning later today. The first NOAA plane is set to head out around 4 p.m. ET today and should make its first pass through Erin an hour or two later.
Erin is slowly gathering steam and steady strengthening should begin in earnest today as it crosses into much warmer waters.
The environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend and the National Hurricane Center is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification between tomorrow and Saturday as it finally finds its footing in these warmer waters. Erin is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week.
Narrow development window for Gulf disturbance
A tropical wave that snuck into the extreme southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche from the Caribbean early Thursday – now designated Invest 98L – has a narrow window to develop into a short-lived depression or storm before moving inland over northeastern Mexico or South Texas late Friday.

Regardless of development, the upshot will be locally heavy rain through the Lower Rio Grande Valley beginning late tomorrow into Saturday.
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