Strengthening Erin on track to pass north of easternmost Caribbean islands this weekend

Models suggest Erin could split the uprights between the U.S. and Bermuda next week

Erin continues to plot a course just north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the upcoming weekend as it steadily strengthens into the first hurricane of the season by Friday.

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Though the core of the storm is expected to stay north of the easternmost Caribbean islands, trailing rainbands and gusty squalls may affect portions of these areas beginning in earnest on Saturday and continuing through the weekend.

Erin is still expected to take the escape hatch north before reaching the U.S., though there’s been some shift westward in the model projections since Wednesday which could be a good development for Bermuda if it keeps Erin far enough west between the archipelago and the U.S. next week.

Forecast probabilities of Erin passing to within about 100 miles of a given location based on our most reliable global models and their ensembles. The European model (red) is on the west side of the guidance and the average of the super-ensemble is indicated by the bold black line. Currently models are indicating a sharp turn northeast into an approaching jet stream dip next week between Bermuda and the U.S. Due to the nature of the sharp turn, interests in Bermuda will want to monitor the forecasts closely for next week. (Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma)

Bermuda especially will want to check back frequently on the forecast into the weekend.

The Euro’s jump west

On Wednesday afternoon, the European model made a dramatic jump westward from previous runs in Erin’s track next week.

Forecast comparison for next Wednesday (Aug. 20th) between the overnight run of the European model yesterday and the afternoon run of the same model by yesterday afternoon. It shows the significant jump west in the deterministic or operational run of the European model. The model’s ensemble members show this left track was an outlier (see discussion below). (TropicalTidbits.com)

But the so-called deterministic or operational run – the headline scenario based on our best understanding of the atmosphere – was on the far left side of the ensemble envelope for the European modeling system. This indicated that the left jump closer to the U.S. remained an outlier scenario.

European model (ECMWF) ensemble system forecast tracks for Erin for the next 10 days (through August 23, 2025) from yesterday (Wednesday, August 13, 2025). The operational/deterministic Euro run was on the left side of the ensemble envelope, indicating an outlier track for now. (Weathermodels.com)

Overall there has been some shift west since yesterday in the consensus track for Erin, but the forecasts for next week still keep the future hurricane safely east of the mainland U.S. and Erin isn’t expected to pose a direct threat to Florida.

If anything, the westward shift may be a positive development for Bermuda, which has been in the crosshairs for next week.

Trends in the TVCN consensus model since Tuesday, with more recent cycles in darker shades and the latest forecast in red. The consensus track has shifted west for next week but remains well east of the mainland United States. (Cyclonicwx.com)

Of course, the strong (dirty) side of the hurricane is to the east, so we’ll need to follow Erin’s progress for Bermuda into the weekend in case it doesn’t spare them a closer blow.

Since yesterday, the models have flopped again, with the Euro now east and the American GFS west of the Euro for next week.

Forecast tracks for Erin from the overnight run of the European model ensemble system. Since Wednesday afternoon, the ensemble suite has shifted back eastward, with most scenarios showing a turn between the U.S. and Bermuda. (Weathermodels.com)
Forecast tracks for Erin from the early morning run Thursday of the American GFS model ensemble system. The GFS ensembles have shifted westward since Wednesday and are now west of the Euro model ensemble suite. (Weathermodels.com)

The consensus, however, hasn’t appreciably changed and the bottom line for the U.S. is Erin is unlikely to pose a direct threat. That said, we can expect powerful rip currents and dangerous waves to be a problem for beaches up and down the east coast due to Erin’s long-period swell.

Hurricane hunters set to fly Erin for the first time today

Hurricane hunter airplanes deployed to Barbados at the entrance of the Caribbean on Wednesday to prepare for routine surveillance of Erin beginning later today. The first NOAA plane is set to head out around 4 p.m. ET today and should make its first pass through Erin an hour or two later.

Erin is slowly gathering steam and steady strengthening should begin in earnest today as it crosses into much warmer waters.

The environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend and the National Hurricane Center is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification between tomorrow and Saturday as it finally finds its footing in these warmer waters. Erin is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week.

Narrow development window for Gulf disturbance

A tropical wave that snuck into the extreme southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche from the Caribbean early Thursday – now designated Invest 98L – has a narrow window to develop into a short-lived depression or storm before moving inland over northeastern Mexico or South Texas late Friday.

Regardless of development, the upshot will be locally heavy rain through the Lower Rio Grande Valley beginning late tomorrow into Saturday.

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About The Author
Michael Lowry

Michael Lowry

Michael Lowry is Local 10's Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert.