Armenia's parliamentary elections Sunday will be a vote on its geopolitical future as incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks closer relations with the European Union and the United States despite longstanding ties with Russia that have been championed by his critics.

Many analysts favor Pashinyan's Civil Contract party to retain control of the parliament, but with many opposition parties running on pro-Russia platforms, the Caucasus nation's place on the international stage has been thrown into the spotlight.

In the months ahead of the election, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have warned Armenia that joining the EU could come at the expense of massive economic damage by disrupting Armenian trade ties with Moscow and its allies.

“These are the first elections in Armenia’s history where geopolitical orientation has become a decisive issue,” Mikayel Zolyan, an analyst and former member of the Armenian Parliament, told The Associated Press from Yerevan. “Until now, Armenia has remained within Russia’s sphere of influence, and this was taken for granted, but now, for the first time, this is being called into question.”

Armenians disappointed with Moscow over Karabakh

Relations between Moscow and Armenia soured in 2023 after Azerbaijan took control of the entire Karabakh region. The mountainous region had been controlled for decades by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia, part of a long conflict between the neighboring countries.

Armenian authorities accused Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region of failing to stop Azerbaijan’s onslaught. Moscow, busy with the conflict in Ukraine, has rejected the accusations, arguing its troops didn’t have a mandate to intervene.

“It turned out that Russia’s image as a guarantor of Armenian security was not based in reality, and it all collapsed after the Karabakh war,” said Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan.

Pashinyan has begun cautiously weakening ties with Moscow, joining the International Criminal Court in 2023 and suspending its participation in the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2024.

Armenia also officially declared its aspirations to join the EU and hosted the European Political Community summit in Yerevan in early May.

A convincing win in the parliamentary vote would give Pashinyan a mandate to continue the trend and finalize a deal with Azerbaijan.

Western ties could bring benefits

Western nations have sought to show some of the advantages that closer ties could bring.

In August, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to sign an agreement declaring an end to their decades-long hostilities and including provisions for the creation of a new transit corridor between Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan. An agreement in February could pave the way for a U.S. company to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also has said that Europe is ready to invest in Armenia's energy industry and its “booming digital scene.”

Trump has endorsed Pashinyan and called him a “great friend” and a leader who is making his country “strong, wealthy, and very secure!”

Opposition parties back Moscow ties

Much of Armenia’s opposition is still dominated by pro-Russia groups and many are also against normalizing relations with Azerbaijan. Key opposition figures have called for Pashinyan to stand down over the loss of Karabakh.

Nineteen political forces, including two blocs and 17 parties, are taking part in the elections.

Pashinyan’s main rival is the Strong Armenia Party, which wants closer business ties with Russia and accuses Pashinyan of attempting to spark a war with Moscow. The party is led by Armenian-Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is on trial for calling for the overthrow of Armenia’s government. He denies the charges.

Other potential contenders include former President Robert Kocharyan, who leads the Hayastan bloc and has accused Pashinyan of “seriously undermining” relations with Russia.

Russia applies economic pressure

Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, has warned that Yerevan’s Western turn could have dire political and economic consequences.

Putin has compared Armenia’s course to that of Ukraine in thinly veiled threats and has suggested Russia's conflict with Ukraine started with its attempts to join the EU.

In recent weeks, Russian has introduced new restrictions on Armenian produce after citing sanitation violations, banning Armenian flowers, certain types of cognac and wine, eggplants, potatoes, dried fruits, fish and more.

Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union, was placed under formal review during a members’ meeting in Kazakhstan in May, with threats to suspend it completely it by December.

During the Kazakhstan summit, the governments of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan also demanded Armenia hold a referendum on whether it would remain in their group or seek EU membership. Pashinyan has rejected the need for such a vote.

Armenian government statistics show 38% of Armenia’s exports went to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union in 2025, the vast majority heading to Russia. In comparison, just 8% of trade went to the EU.

The Russian measures prompted von der Leyen to announce Thursday that the 27-nation bloc would send 50 million euros ($58 million) to support Armenia. In a statement, she said Russia is “weaponizing” economic relations and its ban on imports was “nothing short of economic coercion.”

Facing an uncertain future

Russia could exert further pressure on Armenia because it controls a significant portion of the country’s energy and infrastructure and supplies cheap gas.

“It’s completely unrealistic to say that Armenia can somehow overcome Russian influence in a short period of time,” analyst Zolyan said.

Armenia’s civil society also isconcerned by what they have described as Russian-backed disinformation campaigns ahead of the vote. Moscow denies any interference.

Daniel Ionnisyan, head of the Union of Informed Citizens, an independent election watchdog, told the AP that his organization has documented instances of Russian interference through social media campaigns, cyberattacks, vote buying and bribery of journalists.

That echoes findings of a delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, which visited Yerevan in May and said foreign interference included illicit political financing, cyberattacks, economic coercion and direct attempts to manipulate the electoral process.

“These hybrid tactics aim not only to sway public opinion but to secure long-term geopolitical leverage over Armenia,” the delegation said.

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Sam McNeil in Brussels contributed to this report.

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