After a spate of storminess for the first half of June, the tropical Atlantic looks to be quieting down, at least for the near term. Disruptive wind shear across the preferred June formation areas of the southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean will keep organized activity at bay this week.
Though still early, we’re seeing some indications the eastern Atlantic may try to perk up as we get closer to July as typically high wind shear for this time of year relaxes. Nothing to hang our hat on quite yet, but with the rising branch of an upper-level wind configuration known as the Madden Julian Oscillation hanging about over the northern Indian Ocean, it’s not out of the question this part of the Atlantic becomes more hospitable to activity a little earlier than expected.
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Meanwhile out in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blas is ramping down as it churns toward cooler open waters. To its east, Celia is barely hanging on as a tropical depression just south of Guatemala thanks to persistent wind shear. The system may pick up some steam later this week as conditions become more conducive but will continue to track farther away from the coastlines of Guatemala and southern Mexico.
This tropical update was brought to you by Local 10 Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry.