Developing late season storm to deliver nasty week of weather
An unusual and impactful late season storm developing north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico – designated Invest 98L – will gradually organize over the next several days and slide westward toward Florida, bringing dangerous seas, widespread coastal flooding and beach erosion, gusty squalls, and the potential for heavy rain to a wide stretch of Florida’s Atlantic coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday.
Hurricane hunters investigating Caribbean disturbance
The disturbance moving through the central Caribbean this morning – dubbed Invest 95L – is slowly organizing and will likely become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it heads toward Jamaica, Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula this week.
Roslyn strikes western Mexico, the strongest eastern pacific landfall in 7 years
Hurricane Roslyn continued to strengthen yesterday as expected, with Hurricane Hunter aircraft finding winds of 130 mph during their afternoon mission while the storm was located about 150 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Fiona enters the Caribbean, hurricane watches hoisted for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
The center of Tropical Storm Fiona passed over Guadeloupe – part of the chain of islands flanking the northeastern Caribbean – last night, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds, at times reaching nearly 60 mph, while hurricane watches went up this morning for Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic as the storm tracked westward into the eastern Caribbean.
Earl beginning northward turn about 100 miles north of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands
Despite continued struggles against wind shear over the past 24 hours, Tropical Storm Earl appears to be gathering steam as it begins its anticipated turn northward some 100 miles north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning.
Atlantic heating up, but eyes on the central Atlantic this week
It’s looking a lot like late August out across the Atlantic today – with four areas being highlighted for potential development by the National Hurricane Center – but the broad low pressure area moving into the central Atlantic will be the main story this week.
Tropical depression may form this week in the Atlantic
A disturbance off the coast of Africa may organize into a tropical depression by middle week, becoming the first tropical system in the Atlantic since July 3 and kicking off what is traditionally the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season.
No organized storms in the tropical Atlantic, Blas and Celia struggling in the eastern pacific
After a spate of storminess for the first half of June, the tropical Atlantic looks to be quieting down, at least for the near term. Disruptive wind shear across the preferred June formation areas of the southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean will keep organized activity at bay this week.
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Category 4 Hurricane Sam is turning to the north well away from the islands
Hurricane Sam is a classic, super-intense hurricane. Thankfully, it will clearly turn north well away from the Caribbean islands and well east of Florida and the Bahamas. Bermuda will have to watch it as the storm approaches that island toward the end of the week.
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A catastrophe in the making - extremely dangerous Hurricane Ida is to impact Louisiana late Sunday
The ingredients are coming together for Hurricane Ida to strengthen and grow larger before it plows into southern Louisiana tomorrow – 16 years to the day after Katrina made landfall on the eastern edge of the state.
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Hurricane season begins with Mother Nature playing a different hand
As hurricane season officially starts, strong upper-level winds are blowing across the Gulf, Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. As long as that flow keeps up, any tropical disturbances that think about developing will get blasted and fall apart.
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Hurricane season begins with Mother Nature playing a different hand
As hurricane season officially starts, strong upper-level winds are blowing across the Gulf, Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. As long as that flow keeps up, any tropical disturbances that think about developing will get blasted and fall apart.
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Bryan Norcross Podcast - Getting ready for hurricane season with NHC Director Ken Graham
To get ready for Hurricane Season 2021, Bryan and Luke talk with Ken Graham, the Director of the National Hurricane Center about the big challenges and lessons of the 2020 hurricane season and what we learned about how storms behave, the computer forecast models, and much more.
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Hurricane Eta to menace west Florida while Iota is likely to form in the Caribbean
It’s heading north in the Gulf and edging closer to the west coast of the state. Tropical Storm Warnings cover most of the west coast of Florida with a Hurricane Watch for the Tampa Bay area and points north. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Theta is churning the waters of the far eastern Atlantic heading in the direction of Europe. Hurricane Eta is under an atmospheric environment that’s only moderately supportive of maintaining a storm of hurricane strength, so it’s not expected to get much stronger. Everyone, especially near the water, along the west coast needs to stay informed about local information and instructions.
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Bryan Norcross Podcast - The new 2020 hurricane season outlook with Dr. Louis Uccellini
Bryan talks with Dr. Louis Uccellini, the Director of the National Weather Service, about the new forecast for Hurricane Season 2020, operating the National Weather Service in a pandemic, how the American computer forecast model compares to others in the world, and much more. Download the audio podcast below. SUBSCRIBE to The Bryan Norcross Podcast - iTunes | Android
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Eyeing the disturbance in the distant Atlantic as Hanna and Gonzalo fade
The chatter is accelerating about the large tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Hanna Sunday, July 26 (WPLG)These are the factors, among others, well be watching as we go through this week into next. The National Hurricane Center is rating this disturbance as likely to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week. Its back to being a tropical disturbance. Near Africa, another disturbance is just moving into the Atlantic behind the one discussed above.
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Bryan Norcross Podcast: Impacts of climate change on our weather with Dr. Jeff Masters
Bryan Norcross talks with Dr. Jeff Masters, one of the preeminent weather and climate bloggers on the internet, and a founder of the famous weather-information website Weather Underground. They talk about what’s going on with Hurricane Season 2020, how climate change is affecting our weather, and many other weather topics. SUBSCRIBE to The Bryan Norcross Podcast - iTunes | Android
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Fay fades out as dust dominates the tropics
The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay are speeding out of the Northeast and into Canada today. The flow around the bottom side of that large low-pressure system put a light west wind across South Florida. In and around the Bahamas, the Straits of Florida south of the Keys, and the near-shore waters off the southwest coast, the water is three to six degrees above normal. Take away the ocean breeze effect, and we really heat up, as we’ve seen this summer. Long-range computer forecast models bring in a decent ocean breeze with the disturbance as part of a general shift in the dominant wind direction over South Florida.
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Tropics stay quiet this week
Tropical disturbances are moving across the Atlantic on schedule, but the atmospheric conditions in the tropics are not conducive from them to develop, as is generally the case in June. As a result, no tropical development is expected this week. There will be plenty of tropical moisture over South Florida, however. The flow on the south side of this system will act like a scoop into the tropics to lift waves of moisture over the peninsula. The result is a weather pattern conducive to tropical downpours and higher humidity.
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Cristobal to make landfall late today, fringe effects for southeast Florida
The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal will make landfall on the Louisiana coast later today or tonight. The worst weather with the gustiest winds is displaced ahead and well to the east of the storm – about 100 miles. It is already affecting the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Cristobal is shaped like a comma, which is not what a tropical storm is supposed to look like. The tail of the comma is the moisture tail that we have been discussing the last few days.
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Cristobal on a beeline for the Gulf Coast, most effects stay away from South Florida
Tropical Storm Cristobal is on the move, on a due north track. The center of the tropical storm should arrive at the Louisiana coast midday tomorrow, but the bad weather will arrive on much of the Gulf Coast long before that. In addition, the Gulf water will rise along the coast from Louisiana eastward starting today. A map of peak forecast storm surge along the Gulf Coast. Cristobal is not a classic tropical storm in shape.
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How prepared are you for a massive power outage? Take this quiz and find out
Hurricane season is upon us. And really, as is the case with any major storm, winds and heavy rainfall have the power to create some pretty massive power outages. Are you, or would you, consider yourself stocked up at home, in the event of an emergency? Take the quiz below to find out. All of the checklist items are listed on ready.gov as what you’ll need in your basic disaster supplies kit, as well as some additional emergency supplies that the website recommended.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal forms in the Gulf
The disturbance over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico that is related to former Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda has formed into Tropical Storm Cristobal. This storm isnt forecast to move very much, and will likely stay near the Mexican coastline through midweek or longer. For later this week, the forecast is challenging, but the consensus of the computer forecast models brings Cristobal, or possibly another system formed out of the mass of moisture Cristobal is embedded in, toward the northern Gulf Coast. Sometimes a smaller tropical system can break off from the parent gyre, and become a stronger independent entity. The Gyre and Cristobal appear to be merging now, but its unclear if the circulation will survive or another one will form.
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Disorganized Tropical Storm Arthur heads toward North Carolina
PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – Tropical Storm Arthur formed more or less on schedule last night off the Florida coast. Tropical Storm Arthur Sunday forecast cone. (WPLG)The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track takes the storm near or over extreme eastern North Carolina tomorrow. They’re likely to get some very gusty winds, tropical downpours, and perhaps some tidal flooding. Remember, Arthur formed from wintertime weather processes.
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Arthur becomes first named tropical storm of season
PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – The low-pressure system that brought torrential rain to South Florida has organized into Tropical Storm Arthur well offshore of Central Florida and north of the Bahamas. A reconnaissance aircraft found that the depression east of Florida strengthened into Tropical Storm Arthur on Saturday night. As of 11 p.m., Tropical Storm Arthur was 190 miles East northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida with winds at 40 mph. The official National Hurricane Center forecast issued a Tropical Storm watch for portions of the North Carolina coast. Otherwise, the tropical storm will pull a bit drier air down the peninsula giving us more sunshine.
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Tropical depression forms in the Pacific
Such is the case in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where Tropical Depression One-E formed Saturday morning. While the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin usually has an earlier start to the official hurricane season than our Atlantic (there’s is May 15 vs our June 1), this is still unusual. While the Pacific may be off to an early start, there are no storms currently brewing in the Atlantic. However, the Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University does predict an active season ahead. Heading into the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, warm ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic and favorable atmospheric conditions could allow for a busy season.