Hurricane Sam is a classic, super-intense hurricane. Thankfully, it will clearly turn north well away from the Caribbean islands and well east of Florida and the Bahamas. Bermuda will have to watch it as the storm approaches that island toward the end of the week.
The early forecasts were right that indicated the stronger Sam got, the sooner it would turn right and head north. It got super strong quicker than many of the models were forecasting, which meant it took a path well offshore of the islands and the East Coast of the U.S.
Sam is super intense but fairly small in diameter, which means Bermuda will have to be unlucky to get a significant impact. But it’s too early to know. The smaller diameter also means that Sam will not put as much energy into the ocean as the giant storms we’ve seen, though hurricane-powered swells will reach the U.S. East Coast later this week.
Just southeast of Bermuda today are the remnants of Tropical Storm Peter. It has a disorganized circulation but is over warm enough water to possibly regenerate as it heads out to sea. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a slight chance.
In the far eastern tropical Atlantic, two disturbances are identifiable. Disturbance #1 is embedded in a large mass of cloudiness and surrounded by dry air. This one has a fair chance of eventually developing, at least briefly, as it moves west in the general direction of the Caribbean islands.
Disturbance #2 is just moving off Africa. It’s already more robust, and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a good chance of developing when it gets established over the ocean.
If one or both disturbances become tropical storms, the next names on the list are Victor and Wanda.
The computer forecast models indicate that both disturbances will find tough atmospheric sledding ahead. As we head toward October, usually the eastern Atlantic begins to shut down, and we start looking toward the Caribbean and Gulf. Though there certainly are exceptions. And in a hyperactive season, we take nothing for granted.