Invest 94L organizing as it races toward the Caribbean, not a concern for now for South Florida

Latest update on the tropics provided by Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry

Formation potential graphic (WPLG)

We continue to monitor two areas for potential development in the tropics this morning, but neither is a concern for South Florida at this time.

Invest 94L in the far eastern Atlantic has the highest chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. The disturbance took advantage of more conducive conditions during the overnight hours to shake out some mid-level dry air and refire thunderstorms nearer to its nascent circulation center. The center of 94L this morning is located on the northeastern side of the primary area of storminess, but thunderstorms are also firing on its eastern flank, indicating an increase in overall organization.

Invest 94L satellite image (WPLG)

Invest 94L is racing toward the west at nearly 20 mph and this general trajectory is expected to continue into the work week. The environment ahead is largely favorable for development, especially given the time of year, and 94L should strengthen into Tropical Depression Two or Tropical Storm Bonnie before reaching the Windward Islands by late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Beyond mid-week, model guidance is in overall good agreement with maintaining a strong ridge of high pressure to the north of 94L, which will keep the developing storm on a far south course – well south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – steering it toward Central America by the end of the week. Although still five to six days away from reaching the western Caribbean, for now it looks unlikely to be a concern for South Florida.

Tracking Invest 94L (WPLG)

Aside from 94L, an area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf is being monitored for a low chance of gradual development this week. Regardless of formation, this system is expected to drift westward toward the Texas coastline and away from Florida.

Tracking potential graphic (WPLG)

About the Author:

Michael Lowry is Local 10's Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert.