Hurricane hunters investigating Caribbean disturbance

Latest update on the tropics provided by Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry

Satellite from 8 AM ET Sunday showing Invest 95L circled in red. (NOAA)

The disturbance moving through the central Caribbean this morning – dubbed Invest 95L – is slowly organizing and will likely become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it heads toward Jamaica, Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula this week.

Conventional satellite as well as overnight radar scans from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) satellite instrument indicate 95L’s circulation, though still broad, is becoming better defined.

Caption: Surface wind estimates from late Saturday evening showing 95L’s broad area of spin via the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) instrument aboard the European Space Agency’s Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellite. (NOAA/NESDIS.)

Shower activity in the area remains disorganized for now but gradual development is expected today and tomorrow. The environment ahead isn’t especially ripe – with both modest wind shear and dry air nearby – but it won’t take much for a tropical depression to form. Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the disturbance throughout the day on Sunday.

Regardless of development, 95L will be primarily a rainmaker for parts of the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the system will steer it westward toward Jamaica by late Monday and Tuesday and then towards Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala by Wednesday into Thursday. 95L poses no threat to Florida or the mainland U.S.

About the Author:

Michael Lowry is Local 10's Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert.