The National Hurricane Center is making note of a broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bahamas. It is related to an upper-level disturbance just east of Florida interacting with a surge of moisture loosely connect to the tail of Hurricane Sam. It is very poorly defined, and the upper-level winds are extremely hostile for development at this time.
Over the next few days, it is forecast to drift north over or near the Bahamas. There’s a slight chance that a more organized disturbance could form east of Florida at some point. It’s not clear that it would be totally tropical or would have long to live. None of the computer forecast models show it turning into much, but we’ll track it to be sure.
In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Sam is continuing to weaken. It’s been a record-setting storm, maintaining Category 3 or 4 strength for an unusual length of time. No other storm in the record book has been as strong in the vicinity of Bermuda this time of year. In addition, taking strength and duration into account, Sam is 11th on the record list according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State.
Sam will grow into a giant and strong non-tropical storm in the far North Atlantic. But it’s not expected to be a threat to land.
Tropical Depression Victor is on its last legs in the east Atlantic. Dry Saharan air and hostile upper winds are taking their toll. Victor’s time should be over in the next day or so.
Elsewhere, there are no systems of obvious interest. Using the historical record as a guide, we should keep an eye on the western Caribbean. Quite often the atmospheric pattern is conducive for tropical development in October, but there is no sign of anything developing there through this week.
The water in most of the Caribbean is significantly warmer than usual this year. That means there is some extra fuel available, so we’ll watch closely.