PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – The low-pressure system that brought torrential rain to South Florida has organized into Tropical Storm Arthur well offshore of Central Florida and north of the Bahamas. Indications are it will track over or near extreme eastern North Carolina on Monday.
A reconnaissance aircraft found that the depression east of Florida strengthened into Tropical Storm Arthur on Saturday night.
As of 11 p.m., Tropical Storm Arthur was 190 miles East northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida with winds at 40 mph. It is moving away from South Florida, but we may feel some of the tail of Arthur with storms on Sunday.
The relatively cool ocean water should limit how strong Arthur can get, but if it gets near the Carolina coast it will pass over the warmer Gulf Stream water. A slight difference in the track will significantly affect the warmth of the water under the system, so forecasting the strength is tricky. The official National Hurricane Center forecast issued a Tropical Storm watch for portions of the North Carolina coast.
Some outer bands with heavy tropical downpours will rotate over Florida. Northern Broward will be on the fringe, and Palm Beach will likely get more. Otherwise, the tropical storm will pull a bit drier air down the peninsula giving us more sunshine.
The Dorian-decimated northern Bahamas are mostly out of the woods, although an outer band on the fringe of the circulation could still swing across those islands.
(Stay tuned to Local 10 for updates and keep up with Local 10′s Weather Authority on Local 10.com.)