A disturbance off the coast of Africa may organize into a tropical depression by middle week, becoming the first tropical system in the Atlantic since July 3 and kicking off what is traditionally the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season.
For now, the area of storminess is disorganized, but conditions appear mostly conducive for slow development during the early and middle part of the week while it moves through the eastern Atlantic. By late week, the system will be headed into the teeth of hostile upper-level winds, so its window of opportunity may be short-lived.
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High-pressure steering to the north will guide the disturbance off toward the west-northwest for much of the week. By next weekend, a weakness on the western side of this high-pressure ridge should allow it to lift farther north before reaching the islands.
While still early, forecast models are bearish on the system’s long-term prospects and it will remain over open waters for the duration of the week. While we’ll continue to monitor its progress, the disturbance is of no concern this week for South Florida. Elsewhere, no other areas of development are expected in the Atlantic through the workweek.