2023 Hurricane Season ends: South Florida evades the cone for the first time in nearly a decade
Today marks the official end of the 2023 hurricane season, an active year with over half the season occupied by named storms – the fifth highest coverage in 50 years – but with just one U.S. hurricane landfall and two U.S. landfalling tropical storms.
Tammy turns north, but will it head back south?
After skirting the Lesser Antilles of the eastern Caribbean over the weekend – passing over Barbuda as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane late Saturday upon exiting the islands – Tammy continues to pull away to the north, maintaining its hurricane status over the western Atlantic.
Keeping an eye on Invest 94L for the islands next week
Although the tropical disturbance west of Africa – designated Invest 94L – looks less together than a pan of scrambled eggs today, the environment ahead gives good reason not to overlook it as trade winds sweep it westward toward the islands for next week.
Sean stumbles while Invest 94L plods west
Historically, by this point in the hurricane season, roughly 85% of named storms have already formed in the Atlantic. This means that in a typical year, we would still expect two more named storms before the end of November, with one of those named storms strengthening into a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Philippe soaks northeast Caribbean on a path toward Bermuda, New England and Canada
Tropical Storm Philippe is drenching the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as it spins away from the northeast Caribbean on a path that would take it toward Bermuda and later New England and Atlantic Canada.
Major flooding ongoing across Dominica and Guadeloupe from Philippe
Philippe has been a persistent thorn in the side of hurricane forecasters. The storm, which formed 10 days ago midway between Africa and the Caribbean, ground to a halt late last week and took a southward dive east of the islands as it interacted with the circulation of nearby Tropical Storm Rina.
Where to look this October for tropical trouble
In October, we’re distracted by all the trappings of fall – football and the race for the pennant, pumpkin spice everything, and maybe that first real cold front to kick off dry season. Anything but hurricanes. But like baseball and politics, October is a month of surprises when it comes to hurricane season.
Lee bound for Maine and southeastern Canada this weekend
Hurricane Lee – the storm which grew from a tropical wave we first mentioned in this newsletter back on August 31st before it had even emerged off Africa or garnered a yellow circle from NHC – will this weekend end its over 5,000-mile Atlantic journey spanning over 10 days.
Hurricane Lee mounts a comeback, Bermuda on alert this week
It’s been a soap opera for Hurricane Lee. After rapidly strengthening to a Category 5 Thursday night at an historic pace – a blistering 85 mph increase in maximum winds in 24 hours (tied for the third fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricane) – Lee hit a wall over the weekend, rapidly weakening back down to a Category 2 by Saturday evening.
Atlantic sees historic tropical cyclone outbreak, Hilary hits Southern California with devastating floods
As we discussed in our August 1st newsletter, myriad factors appeared to favor activity for the latter part of August. This weekend, the Atlantic delivered in spectacular fashion, with three tropical cyclones forming – Tropical Depression Six (now Gert), Tropical Storm Emily, and Tropical Storm Franklin – in only 24 hours, only the third time that’s occurred since records began in 1851.
Atlantic activity ratchets up while Southern California braces for tropical trouble
The Atlantic is finding its footing this week with three systems expected to organize in the days ahead while Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific is poised to unleash torrents of rain across parts of Southern California early next week as a weakened but still potent storm system.
Atlantic activity picking up, but no threats for now
It’s nearing the time of year tropical activity starts quickly heating up, and right on cue we’re following several systems this week in the Atlantic for possible development. For now, neither system poses any immediate threat to land, but we’ll keep an eye to the westernmost disturbance for the Caribbean islands this weekend.
NOAA doubles odds of above average hurricane season heading into peak period
Government forecasters on Thursday doubled the odds of above average Atlantic hurricane activity from previous forecasts issued in May, citing unprecedented warmth across Atlantic waters holding back the usual storm-suppressing influence of El Niño.
August’s strongest hurricanes: Where did they go? Where did they peak?
August in the Atlantic can be a dangerous place for deadly and destructive hurricanes. Names like Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005), Camille (1969), Allen (1980), Charley (2004), Harvey (2017), Ida (2021), Laura (2020), Alicia (1983), and David (1979) all have their origins in August.
August lull in Atlantic activity continues
The last named storm to make an appearance in the Atlantic was Don – the only hurricane so far of 2023 – which burned its last ember during the early morning hours of July 24th. The 15 days since the last named storm is a little longer than usual for the time of year, but not exceptionally so.
Experts issue final hurricane season forecasts ahead of the Atlantic’s busiest stretch
Several high-profile forecast groups – including the pioneers of seasonal hurricane forecasting at Colorado State University – issued their final hurricane season outlooks this week ahead of what’s typically the Atlantic’s busiest stretch.
Looking back on hurricane season’s most active Julys
We’re now through the first 35 days of the 183-day hurricane season, or roughly 20 percent down, according to the Gregorian calendar. Mother Nature, however, operates on its own timelines, and the record books remind us that a whopping 98 percent of hurricane season activity typically comes after July 5th.
Strongest June hurricanes: Where did they form, where did they go?
The record books aren’t exactly replete with June hurricanes. On average, about once every five years, we can expect a June hurricane in the Atlantic and – as we’ve discussed in previous newsletters – only about once a decade will a June hurricane strike the U.S.
Tropical Atlantic settles as Saharan dust blows in
The tropical Atlantic has settled back into a characteristically quiet state for late June after an unprecedented start – including two named storms in the main development region in June, the first occurrence in the modern record – to the hurricane season.
Tracking several early season tropical waves
In Monday’s newsletter, we highlighted favored areas of tropical development in June, including the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic. Today we turn our attention to the disturbances that originate over Africa – known as tropical waves – that often serve as seedlings for many of our strongest hurricanes later in the hurricane season.
Experts up their forecasts to start 2023 Hurricane Season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins today and forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) – the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s – released new numbers, raising their seasonal predictions from earlier forecasts.
Devastating 2022 hurricane season comes to a close
The deadly and destructive hurricane season of 2022 officially ends. In its wake, the long road to recovery continues, especially in southwest Florida, where Ian – the deadliest hurricane to strike the mainland U.S. in at least a decade and one of the costliest hurricanes on record – devastated communities and reshaped shorelines.
Florida’s coastal conditions deteriorate ahead of strengthening Nicole
Storm surge warnings were issued late Monday for Florida’s entire Atlantic coastline from North Palm Beach northward and for parts of southeast Georgia in anticipation of widespread coastal flooding from Nicole’s expansive circulation.
Developing late season storm to deliver nasty week of weather
An unusual and impactful late season storm developing north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico – designated Invest 98L – will gradually organize over the next several days and slide westward toward Florida, bringing dangerous seas, widespread coastal flooding and beach erosion, gusty squalls, and the potential for heavy rain to a wide stretch of Florida’s Atlantic coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday.
Coastal storm to bring rough seas, coastal flooding and rain squalls next week
A sprawling storm system taking shape over the western Atlantic is expected to drift westward toward Florida early next week, bringing gusty winds, rough seas, widespread coastal flooding, and the potential for squally weather to the southeast U.S., including the entire Florida east coast, for much of the workweek.
Lisa slams Belize, messy system shaping up for Florida next week
Hurricane Lisa packed quite a punch as it came ashore about 10 miles south of Belize City shortly after 5 PM ET yesterday. Though compact, its radius of maximum winds fell squarely over Belize City, pushing a destructive storm surge into Belize’s largest city.
Julia stays intact across Central America, may spawn new systems
Julia, which made landfall early Sunday on the Caribbean side of Nicaragua, scooted quickly across the rugged terrain of Central America Sunday, emerging over Pacific waters by Sunday night largely intact as a tropical storm, becoming only the third Atlantic-Pacific crossover storm to keep its name on both sides since the tropical cyclone naming rule took effect in 2000.
Ian a hurricane again, nearing landfall in the Carolinas
After thrashing east-central and northeast Florida yesterday afternoon as a strong tropical storm, Ian found its second wind after reemerging over Atlantic waters and was reclassified a hurricane on Thursday about 70 miles east of Daytona Beach.