The Atlantic hurricane season’s sluggish start will continue into the second week of the season, with no development expected through the work week.
The storminess we discussed last Monday – associated with the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO – will make its way into Central America by next weekend but forecasts have since waned on the strength of this MJO episode and for now keep tropical mischief contained to the eastern Pacific rather than the Gulf or Caribbean.
Though no named storms have formed so far in the Atlantic, the typical date of the first named storm in the Atlantic isn’t until around the third week of June. As we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, early season activity (or lack thereof) isn’t a useful predictor of what may come deeper into the season.
Eastern North Pacific off to a brisk start
The second and third named storms – Barbara and Cosme – of the young eastern North Pacific hurricane season formed on Sunday. The typical date of the third named storm in the Northeast Pacific isn’t until the first week of July, so activity is running well ahead of schedule.
Barbara has since strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season Monday morning with Cosme expected to become a hurricane later today. On average, the second hurricane of the eastern Pacific doesn’t form until the middle of July. Both Barbara and Cosme are forecast to stay over water.
This is the first season since 1992 that the eastern North Pacific has recorded three named storms by June 9th. It’s also the first time since 1990 that the eastern North Pacific has recorded three named storms and the Atlantic none by this point in the season.
The eastern Pacific is having a much different start than in 2024 when the first named storm didn’t form until July 4th, the basin’s most sluggish start of the satellite era.
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