Hurricane Erin, already twice as large as it was just a few days ago, is expected to grow even larger this week as its expanding wind field brushes up against the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, delivering days of dangerous waves, high surf, and life-threatening rip currents for most of the coastal Atlantic states.
Although its dangerous core will stay offshore, Erin’s tropical storm winds will stretch some 200 to 300 miles in either direction from its center, which will likely bring tropical storm winds (winds of 39 mph or higher) to coastal North Carolina and perhaps into parts of the mid-Atlantic by Wednesday into Thursday.
Because of this, a tropical storm watch was issued Monday afternoon for the Outer Banks of North Carolina and extended northward Tuesday morning to include the coastal waters off Maryland and Delaware. Additional watches or warnings are possible for the mid-Atlantic or northeast U.S. later today.
Mandatory evacuations issued North Carolina’s barrier islands
Erin’s expansive circulation and accompanying large and battering waves will pose an especially significant coastal threat to oceanside areas of North Carolina’s Outer Banks along Highway 12, where moderate to major coastal flooding is possible on Wednesday and Thursday. The long-period swell and wind-driven waves could overwash dunes and make some barrier-island roads impassable by late Wednesday or early Thursday as Erin makes its closest point of approach.
A Storm Surge Watch is in place from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, for up to 4 feet of storm surge flooding this week. Waves topping 15 to 20 feet are expected just offshore, compounding coastal flooding and beach and dune erosion.
On Monday, Dare County officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of low-lying Hatteras Island, following evacuation notices posted for neighboring Ocracoke Island posted late Sunday.
Erin forecast to be one of the biggest major hurricanes on record
As Erin grows in size the next few days, it’s forecast to become one of the largest major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes on record. With the breadth of its tropical storm winds (winds of 39 mph or stronger) forecast to reach over 525 miles across by Wednesday into Thursday, Erin would be the largest major hurricane since Fiona in September 2022 and only the 6th major hurricane to grow to such a size this century.
Though Erin’s western side has been noticeably eroded by a combination of dry air and wind shear since Monday, NHC forecasts it to hold its own as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane for much of this week as it passes between Bermuda and the U.S.
The forecast track has gradually shifted westward over the past few days, bringing Erin’s tropical storm winds closer to the eastern U.S.
Though Bermuda lies about 300 to 500 miles west of Erin’s track, the hurricane’s increasingly lopsided wind field – with winds skewing farther east – as Erin turns sharply northeast by late Wednesday, could also mean tropical storm conditions in Bermuda.
Regardless, rough surf and dangerous waves topping 20 to 30 feet will be felt along Bermuda’s rocky coast.
Waves moving through the tropical Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is outlining two tropical waves moving through the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean.
The easternmost wave – designated Invest 99L – has only a low chance of development the next few days, and models don’t show it doing much thereafter.
The westernmost wave that’s located in the central Atlantic remains discombobulated, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching for hundreds of miles. Until it becomes more coherent and consolidated, we won’t have a great handle on its future track and development.
That said, generally models take the system off toward the west-northwest this week and near or north of the islands from Friday into the weekend. Guidance has been hot and cold on this one, but slow development later this week looks reasonable.
Again, until we can better lock down where it may come together, we can’t speculate on whether it’ll be a longer-term problem for the U.S. Development of the northern lobe and a track north of the islands, as many models now advertise, would probably favor a turn before the U.S., but we’ll need to wait this one out to see where it pulls together in the days ahead.
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