It’s been a busy stretch for the Atlantic. Since the basin reopened for business about a month ago following a bizarre 20-day drought with no active tropical systems through the traditional peak of the hurricane season, it’s managed to notch 6 of its 12 named storms and a full 60% of the season’s overall tropical activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.
While more recent storms like Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo have been weak and short-lived, powerhouse hurricanes like Category 4 Gabrielle and Category 5 Humberto made their presence known across the entire western Atlantic.
Imelda gave the U.S. a momentary scare, but took a fast turn toward Bermuda in a coordinated dance with Humberto that brought the two hurricanes closer together than any other hurricane pair in the reliable records.
With Lorenzo unraveling yesterday over the wide open Atlantic, the Atlantic hurricane season appears to be taking its 7th inning stretch into early next week. The big question is do the players come back to the field toward the end of next week or the final innings end with little fanfare?
Keeping eyes on the western Caribbean late next week
As we’ve been discussing all week, a tropical wave currently moving through the Atlantic will be entering the Caribbean next week.
Our computer models continue to show some potential for development once it reaches the western Caribbean by late next week. The signal in the models for development is decent, but it also hasn’t trended any stronger in recent days.
If anything, models keep pushing back development, which tells us we shouldn’t bite off just yet. Either way, it’s over a week out so there’s plenty of time to monitor.
As we’ve discussed, the western Caribbean is a hot spot in October so it’s worth watching, but for now, it’s not something we need to worry about.
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