The strong tropical disturbance designated Invest 98L over the weekend is coming together as Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning, and the National Hurricane Center expects to issue its first forecast on the Atlantic hurricane season’s 13th named storm shortly.
Though Melissa is slowly organizing, it doesn’t appear poised to rapidly strengthen at the moment.
Visible satellite Tuesday morning showed high cloud tops peeling off quickly to the east – like smoke billowing from a chimney stack on a windy winter’s day – indicating the continued presence of moderate to high wind shear that’ll slow its pace of organization in the near term.
Wind shear should relax some, but not altogether, as Melissa taps the breaks over the central Caribbean in the days ahead. This should allow for at least gradual strengthening into a hurricane before the end of the week.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission into Melissa this afternoon.
Heavy rain and flood threat for the north-central Caribbean islands
The primary concern this week is Melissa’s crawl through the central Caribbean.
Steering currents will largely collapse, leaving Melissa to meander for several days south of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, bringing the potential for a prolonged period of heavy rains, worsened by the steep mountainous terrain of the nearby islands, which also brings the threat of life-threatening mudslides and landslides.
The details of where the heaviest rain and highest flood risk will occur will hinge on how close Melissa gets to the islands of the north-central Caribbean.
Even conservatively, however, a foot or more of rain seems plausible anywhere from Jamaica and eastern Cuba to Hispaniola or parts of Puerto Rico this week.
Higher-end rainfall totals are certainly on the table, especially in places like Haiti and the Dominican Republic that have a history of devastating and deadly floods.
Interests in these areas should monitor the flood threat closely in the days ahead.
Awaiting the northeast turn
Melissa’s future track will be a bit of a cliffhanger as it tussles with two competing high-pressure steering currents.
By Thursday into Friday, the storm has its first fork in the road as a passing dip in the jet stream tugs its circulation north and toward the islands.
The question is will the dip be enough to pull it out of the Caribbean entirely or does it leave Melissa behind but closer to land?
Its future track depends on its intensity, with a stronger (and taller) system feeling the pull northward by the higher-altitude winds of the jet stream.
If it stays weaker, it will be prone to feel the steering currents at lower levels which would push Melissa back westward toward Jamaica and Central America.
The consensus favors a turn, but perhaps not until next week, missing the first exit ramp Thursday and Friday, and leaving Melissa lashing parts of the Caribbean for the better part of a week.
Melissa not a mainland U.S. concern
As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, the subtropical jet stream has sunk deep into the Gulf and across Florida, a good sign for those of us stateside that fall is settling into the southern tier and offering protection against late-season storms.
With a now steady progression of fall fronts into the Gulf and western Atlantic, Melissa will be hard-pressed to make it farther west than central Cuba before either turning or getting gobbled up by blistering wind shear.
None of our reliable models shows Melissa posing any direct problems for the mainland U.S. in the week ahead.
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