Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning about 300 miles south of Haiti over the central Caribbean but remains disorganized as it contends with persistent wind shear.
Early Wednesday, Air Force Hurricane Hunters found Melissa’s center had reformed northeast of its previous estimate, and winds and weather associated with the lopsided storm were skewed east of its circulation center due to a firehose of shear.
Forecast models have been noticeably underestimating the shear that’s proven to be a thorn in Melissa’s side so far. The shear will be slow to relax over the next few days, so the forecast this week is for only slow strengthening.
Melissa is still expected to become a hurricane before the week’s out, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti for the possibility of hurricane winds (74 mph or stronger) later this week.
Torrential rainfall and significant flash flooding the most serious near-term threat
As we’ve detailed in previous newsletters, Melissa’s caught between two opposing areas of high pressure and will meander in a sort-of wilderness of steering over the north-central Caribbean into the weekend.
Over the next 5 days, the official forecast moves Melissa a meagerly 275 miles north – in the general direction of Jamaica and southern Haiti – mirroring a pace most of us could walk.
The upshot is the potential for boatloads of rain on its northern fringes, primarily from Jamaica to Haiti and the Dominican Republic this weekend, where flash flooding will be worsened by the potential for dangerous and life-threatening mudslides and landslides.
It’s difficult to pinpoint specifics of the flood threat this far out, but forecast models suggest high-end totals surpassing a foot (about 300 mm) or more will be realized in some spots.
Areas like Hispaniola are especially prone to catastrophic flash floods due to the island’s complex and mountainous terrain. Flooding is historically the deadliest calling card of tropical systems in this part of the world, and the threat Melissa brings will be no exception.
Melissa stuck until next week
We outlined a few scenarios in yesterday’s newsletter that could help pull Melissa out of the Caribbean.
Unfortunately, the scenarios that would unstick Melissa soonest would require it to be a more intense hurricane, allowing a stronger (and taller) circulation to feel the tug toward the northeast of high-altitude jet stream winds passing by to the north.
With persistent wind shear keeping Melissa from quickly strengthening over the next few days, it appears the odds of it taking that early exit ramp are low. This means a slow drift westward toward Jamaica and the western Caribbean into early next week is most likely, with perhaps an eventual sharp turn toward eastern Cuba later next week.
There remains a wide range of possibilities for Melissa and the longer it hangs around the Caribbean, the more likely shear eventually softens and allows it to tap a deep well of ocean fuel across the central and western Caribbean.
Most of our longer-range intensity guidance suggests Melissa will strengthen into a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane if is loiters into next week which seems increasingly likely.
Bottom line: we have a ways to go yet with Melissa, and interests from Hispaniola and Jamaica to eastern Cuba to even parts of Central America should check back frequently on the forecast.
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