Author’s note: This is a special Sunday edition of the tropical newsletter to discuss rapidly strengthening Hurricane Melissa, expected to strike Jamaica late Monday or early Tuesday as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane

Melissa wasted no time harvesting a rich reservoir of warm water in the central Caribbean south of Jamaica on Saturday to intensify at an extreme rate – from a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday morning to a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane before sunrise Sunday.

The remarkable rate of strengthening since Saturday – so far a 70 mph increase over the past 24 hours, about double the threshold for rapid intensification – is on the fringes of what’s ever been observed in the Atlantic basin.

Although hurricane hunters currently investigating Melissa (late Sunday morning) are finding it may have hit a temporary plateau, additional strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane is expected later today or early Monday.

If Melissa becomes a Category 5 hurricane as forecast, it would be only the 45th Category 5 hurricane on record (since 1851), but the third this hurricane season. Only one year – the devastating 2005 hurricane season that included the likes of Category 5s Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma – has ever recorded more than two Category 5 hurricanes in a single season.

Melissa’s drifting westward only about 110 miles south of eastern Jamaica today. The intense hurricane’s circulation extends much higher into the atmosphere than on early Saturday, when it was a much weaker tropical storm.

As a result, Melissa’s feeling a push more toward the southwest from the higher-positioned steering ridge to its northwest, allowing it to track ever-so-slightly south of previous forecasts – at least in the near term a point of good news for Jamaica for the duration of devastating winds affecting the island.

Melissa threatens to be the strongest hurricane on record to hit Jamaica

Though Jamaica will see tropical storm winds today (winds 39 mph or stronger), Melissa’s core – including its hurricane winds – will stay south until Monday afternoon and evening when it turns sharply northeast and accelerates, taking direct aim.

The worst of Melissa will hit Jamaica square on from late Monday through the afternoon hours Tuesday, with landfall most likely Tuesday morning.

The only recorded Category 4 hurricane to hit Jamaica was Gilbert in 1988 that came from the east, its worst hurricane on record that decimated crops and livestock, destroyed over 100,000 homes, wiped out power and communications across the island, and killed almost 50 people.

Every Category 4 or stronger hurricane to pass within 50 miles of Jamaica came from the east – including Gilbert in 1988 – and no Category 5 hurricane has ever struck Jamaica in the known records.

Melissa’s rare approach from the south – perhaps as a Category 5 hurricane – will maximize its catastrophic coastal storm surge potential, which will be highest along the south-facing shores, bays, and harbors, including into Kingston Harbour and Norman Manley International Airport, which sits on a narrow strip of sand on the outer edge of Kingston Harbour and was severely damaged during Gilbert.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a life-threatening storm surge reaching 9 to 13 feet along Jamaica’s south shore, which will almost certainly be worsened along the exposed coast by powerful large and battering waves.

Catastrophic rainfall totals topping 40 inches (1000 mm)

Although Melissa’s destructive core will remain south of Jamaica today, torrential rainfall will begin in earnest across the island along its northern edges, with highest totals likely on Jamaica’s eastern tip, where strong east-to-west moving winds will maximize rainfall rates in the mountains.

Widespread totals of 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm) are forecast for not only Jamaica but across parts of southern Haiti in the coming days, with rainfall topping 40 inches (1000 mm) in some spots. These extreme rainfall totals will lead to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides through early next week.

Melissa threatens eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas as a major hurricane

Once Melissa passes across Jamaica, it will accelerate through eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos late Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps as a still-major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane.

Melissa’s circulation will likely get disrupted and weaken some over the mountains of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, but because it will be accelerating quickly, it’s not anticipated to completely unravel and should remain a strong hurricane as it reaches the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Melissa will accelerate into the western Atlantic later this week and could make a close pass to Bermuda as a weakened hurricane on Friday or Saturday.

Mercifully, Melissa poses no threat to the U.S. in the week ahead.

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