After weakening to a Category 1 hurricane after its passage across the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba, by Wednesday afternoon Melissa was recovering over the waters around the speckled islands of the southeastern Bahamas.

Melissa regained Category 2 status as it pulled away from the Bahamas late Wednesday and continued to slowly restrengthen into Thursday morning.

The hurricane will take a fast pass northeast, traveling a blistering 600-plus miles today on a trajectory that will take its now-ragged eye roughly 75 to 175 miles west of Bermuda by the witching hour Thursday into Friday, likely as a still-Category 2 hurricane.

With hurricane winds extending about 60 miles east of Melissa’s center and its wind field expanding as it races northeast, a hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda for the possibility of hurricane conditions (winds of 74 mph or stronger), most likely in gusts, as it makes its closest pass late Thursday and during the predawn hours Friday.

Melissa will be hauling at nearly 40 mph as it blows by Bermuda, so prolonged heavy rains from outer bands won’t be a problem for the island territory.

Melissa’s magnificent mesovortices

Melissa’s power at its peak on approach to Jamaica early Tuesday was captured by high-resolution weather satellites, including NOAA’s newest flagship geostationary satellite GOES-19, which went viral earlier this year.

A spectacular zoomed-in, and storm-centric satellite loop posted late Wednesday by NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere or CIRA – one of 16 cooperative research institutes originally slated for elimination in the Trump administration’s 2025 Congressional budget request – shows an intricate web of mesovortices gyrating in Melissa’s eye in the hours after sunrise Tuesday when Melissa was at its strongest as a Category 5 hurricane.

The scalloped appearance to the clouds in a starfish-like pattern in the eye – so-called mesovortices – form from extreme differences in wind speed and direction (wind shear) near the edge of the eye and happen only in the strongest of hurricanes.

Research and computer modeling have shown these mesovortices to act like steroids to high-end hurricanes, juicing the storm by transporting high entropy air from the eye to the intense eyewall surrounding it, often helping hurricanes reach a kind of “superintensity” above what environmental conditions alone might otherwise suggest.

Mesovortices are notorious for dragging ferocious winds down to the surface, leading to pockets of extreme damage resembling that of a tornado. It’s one of the reasons we advise not venturing out in the middle of the eye. They often broadside areas with little warning when winds seem to be trailing off in the eye.

Rarely have we captured these processes in such detail as what’s shown here. Mesovortices remain an active area of research for hurricane scientists.

Red tide outbreak looms around Jamaica

Before and after photos from satellite of the waters around Jamaica also reveal a more colorful sea, tinted with turquoise and aquamarine patches and peppered with plumes of murky fingers near Jamaica’s south coast.

The change in sea color is reminiscent of satellite photos after the passage of Hurricane Ian in 2022 off Florida’s southwest coast.

Strong hurricanes like Melissa and Ian churn up nutrient-rich water and sediment from the seafloor in a process known as upwelling. The added nutrients fuel rapid blooms of microscopic algae known as phytoplankton that in turn enhance surface chloropyll, causing the brilliant aquamarine colors.

One species of phytoplankton is called Karenia brevis, a type of harmful algae species that produces toxins poisonous to shellfish and humans and can contaminate seafood and drinking water.

A NOAA-funded study published earlier this year found that Hurricane Ian in 2022 was responsible for stimulating one of these phytoplankton blooms, causing a red tide outbreak that lasted for 6 months after the storm passed.

Harmful algal blooms caused by the Karenia brevis species – commonly known as red tide because of the reddish tint to the color caused by overgrown algae near the coast – can be especially hazardous to humans and marine life.

They’re not only responsible for large fish kills, but can cause severe respiratory, dermatological, and digestive issues (from seafood or contaminated drinking water consumption) in humans, and have been linked to long-term neurodegenerative diseases.

The satellite data suggest the possibility for lingering red tide outbreaks in the areas most affected by Melissa. While other priorities take precedence in the immediate aftermath, the potential for an extended red tide outbreak will be something to monitor for those living along Jamaica’s shores or aiding in recovery in the months ahead.

Nothing brewing behind Melissa

As we’ve mentioned in newsletters this week, the tropics will stay quiet behind Melissa with long-range models muted into the middle of November.

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