MIAMI — President Donald Trump’s push for change in Venezuela and Cuba appears to be prioritizing business deals over democratic shifts, according to experts.
While Venezuela has oil, Cuba has reserves of nickel and cobalt. Both minerals are in high demand in the electric vehicle and aerospace industries.
John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade & Economic Council, a New York-based nonprofit organization, has been following negotiations.
“There is what we want, and then there is what we likely could get,” Kavulich said on Friday.
The collapsing economies of Venezuela and Cuba share political centralization and reliance on foreign lifelines. Both have prompted mass migrations.
Related story: A man fights for a new life in Cuba after the US expels him in an immigration crackdown
“We may want to see political change come first, but it’s quite likely economic, financial, and commercial change comes first,” Kavulich said about Cuba. “And, isn’t that similar to what is happening in Venezuela?”
Delcy Rodríguez has received Trump’s praise for opening the state-owned industry to U.S. investment since she stepped up as the interim president after the U.S. detained and imprisoned Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3.
Without the steady flow of Venezuelan oil, Cuba has been enduring more crippling water and power outages, and food prices are soaring.
In August, the Cuba Study Group, a non-partisan advocacy organization, released an 8-page policy statement urging “a stronger humanitarian response to Cuba’s deepening crisis.”
Andy S. Gomez, a Local 10 News analyst and the former director of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, is concerned about the ongoing crisis.
“I have never seen it this bad,” Gomez said.
Related story: Latest updates from Local 10 Cuba Analyst Dr. Andy Gomez
Miguel Díaz-Canel, who has been the Cuban president since 2019 and is serving a term that runs until 2028, mostly complains about the U.S. Gomez said the death of Raúl Castro, who is wanted in the U.S., will prompt a “transition,” but not a democratic one.
A U.S.-Canadian business deal related to a Canadian-Cuban mining venture that involves property seized decades ago may be pioneering a new model. Pressure from U.S. sanctions prompted it.
The Trump administration’s recent sanctions included Cuban state-owned companies NICAROTEC and CEXNI, which provide support in the nickel and cobalt sectors.
U.S. sanctions in May included Moa Nickel, or MNSA, which the U.S. State Department described as “a joint venture between Sherritt International Corporation,” a Canadian company, and “the Cuban state-owned La Compania General de Niquel,” which “has exploited Cuba’s natural resources to benefit the regime at the expense of the Cuban people.”
Sherritt announced that U.S. sanctions prompted the suspension of “joint venture activities in Cuba.” During the suspension, Sherritt announced the shutdown of the refinery in June.
Related story: Cuba opens door to U.S. private enterprise as economy struggles
Sherritt later announced an exclusivity agreement with Texas-based Gillon Capital to allow the purchase of about 55% of shares. Ray Washburne, a long-time political ally of Trump, is behind Gillon Capital.
In July, Kyma Capital, a stakeholder in Sherritt, released a statement “raising serious concerns” about the agreement with Gillon Capital.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported Citigroup, which holds a claim on the Moa mine in Cuba estimated at $88 million, had joined “the tussle for control of Sherritt.” Kavulich told Bloomberg the Trump administration’s approval won’t be possible “unless they have the approval of the certified claimants.”
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