Cuba expert says regime change doubtful unless US military intervenes

‘I don’t see it happening because it would have to come from inside’

Loading video...

HIALEAH GARDENS, Fla. — A panel discussed the future of Cuba during a roundtable in Hialeah Gardens on Monday, as the island faces an unprecedented energy crisis under a U.S. oil blockade.

Leer en español

The Assault Brigade 2506 Museum, which honors those who risked their lives to try and restore democracy to Cuba during the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, hosted the panel.

Cuban American exile Claudia Puig was an invited panelist. She sat directly in front of a black and white photo of her father, a brigade member, who she said the Cuban government executed by firing squad upon his capture.

“We need to get rid of the threat and I hope it happens now because it has been a threat for 67 years,” Puig said. “I think it is in a process, and a very difficult one, because there is no clear leadership inside the island or outside, but I do believe (Donald) Trump and Marco (Rubio), they are so close to it, to have a free Cuba, and they know the risk of not having one.”

Sebastian Arcos, the interim director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, told Local 10 that while America’s maximum pressure campaign of blocking oil access is leading to an economic weakening and growing unrest on the communist island, there is no guarantee that talks with the United States will ultimately lead to regime change.

“People in Havana have been banging pots over the last 10 days, every night, so it could blow up tomorrow. How it would end, no one knows,” he said. “We have no idea, no sense of where these conversations are going. That is the nature of the regime. They are not going to give up. Raul Castro, it would be humiliating for him to hop on a plane and leave. I really hope he would do that, because it would save a lot of time and blood in the process.”

Arcos said it’s also not clear whether ousting the communist party and Castro family would even be possible without U.S. military intervention. He said he doesn’t think there will be a regime change without it.

“I don’t see it happening because it would have to come from inside,” he said. “The Cuban people are scared of the Cuban government, because of harsh repression of recent demonstrations. Cuba today has more political prisoners than Venezuela, a country that is three times bigger in population. The one thing they do well is repression.”

“What do you think the reaction would be among Miami’s Cuban-American exile community if the U.S. announces a business deal with Cuba with economic reforms but no regime change?” Local 10’s Christina Vazquez asked.

“Trump could very well lose the Cuban vote because it would be a huge disappointment, not only for Cubans in Miami but also Cubans on the island. It would be a huge disappointment for everyone,” Arcos said. “Cubans here in the United States and on the island are looking at this moment like this is our Berlin Wall, so image if it doesn’t happen.”

Moderating Monday’s panel was Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.

“I think that is a possibility, but I highly encourage people, you have to stand and fight, and it is going to take other nations to get in there to help them on their feet,” he said.

Collins is running to be Florida’s next governor.

Copyright 2026 by WPLG Local10.com - All rights reserved.

About The Author
Christina Vazquez

Christina Vazquez

Christina returned to Local 10 in 2019 as a reporter after covering Hurricane Dorian for the station. She is an Edward R. Murrow Award-winning journalist and previously earned an Emmy Award while at WPLG for her investigative consumer protection segment "Call Christina."