MIAMI — President Donald Trump said Friday that Cuba “is going to fall pretty soon” and announced he is assigning Secretary of State Marco Rubio to negotiate a deal aimed at regime change on the island.
Trump suggested that Cuban leaders “want to make a deal so badly” with the U.S., adding that he expects to celebrate developments in Cuba soon.
Trump also addressed members of the Cuban-American community, saying, “Who came from Cuba, originally from Cuba? Your parents came and you’re gonna go back, and you won’t need my approval.” He said. “We’re gonna celebrate that separately. I just want to wait a couple of weeks. We’ll be together again soon, I suspect, celebrating what’s going on in Cuba.”
The remarks come amid what analysts describe as a “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the communist island in recent weeks, including restrictions on oil imports and a decline in international tourism, traditionally a source of hard currency.
The developments also come as the U.S. Department of Justice is examining possible legal action tied to Cuba’s government.
A DOJ spokesperson said federal prosecutors across the country are continuing efforts to address international criminal activity.
“Federal prosecutors from across the country work every day to pursue justice, which includes efforts to combat transnational crime,” the spokesperson wrote.
According to the Justice Department, the effort is being coordinated by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida in collaboration with federal partners.
Some analysts, however, say the Trump administration has not clearly outlined how it would transition Cuba from its communist government to democratic leadership.
Members of Miami’s Cuban-American exile community, many of whom have waited decades for political change on the island, say the president’s remarks are fueling hope that change could be near.
Orlando Gutierrez Boronat of the Assembly of the Cuban Resistance said pressure on the Cuban government must continue.
“Military pressure, diplomatic pressure,” Gutierrez Boronat said. He also criticized negotiations that could prolong the regime’s hold on power. “They dilute negotiations, they dilute talks.”
Gutierrez Boronat argued Cuba’s leaders are focused on maintaining power rather than improving conditions for citizens.
“They don’t care about the people. They care about staying in power,” he said.
Still, some analysts say the administration has not clearly outlined how it would transition Cuba from communist rule to democratic leadership.
Michael Bustamante, chair of Cuban and Cuban American studies at the University of Miami, said the administration’s messaging has been inconsistent.
“I think like all of us, I’m thinking through what this is all going to mean and trying to read the tea leaves,” Bustamante said. “And I think the signals continue to be rather mixed. One day we’re talking about negotiations, the next day we’re talking about it’s going to fall. So it is really hard to figure out what exactly is going on.”
“But certainly the comments that we hear coming from the administration are raising expectations that something big is on the horizon. And it’s difficult to think about how many balls this administration has to juggle, how many sort of conflicts they can be involved in at the same time,” he added. “And I continue to think that as events in Iran evolve, that’s going to have some bearing on what happens, the degree of attention that the administration can pay to it. But we’re just going to have to see, I’m not really clear on what the administration is intending at this point.”
Trump’s comments drew attention because, unlike the collapse of the Soviet Union or the political situation in Venezuela, Cuba does not have a widely recognized internal opposition that the U.S. could turn to lead a transition, analysts say.
The announcement comes as Trump seeks to reassure the Cuban-American exile community, many of whom have long advocated for a free Cuba and regime change toward democracy.
Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida and Cuban-American, will reportedly take the lead in negotiating any deal with Cuban authorities or representatives of the island’s government.
U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R) Florida Congress 28 said the situation in Cuba differs from other countries facing political upheaval, such as Venezuela.
Gimenez said Cuba lacks a well-established political opposition and the economic resources that could help stabilize the country during a transition.
“So part of that also entails that at the end there is a transition to democracy and a new government that the people themselves choose,” Gimenez said.
Gimenez added that current U.S. policy appears focused on negotiating a deal that could lead to that transition.
At the same time, some analysts question how long Cuba will remain a top priority for the administration as other global conflicts demand attention.
Gimenez argued the strategy extends beyond Cuba alone.
“Iran is a more difficult nut to crack. But I believe that it’s all part of one major strategy,” he said. “It’s not just Venezuela by itself, Cuba by itself, Iran by itself. It’s really all part of a global strategy that the president is embarking on.”
He described the approach as a broader effort to reshape geopolitical alliances.
“So it’s really a pretty broad-based strategy to change the current world order and make it much more familiar to the United States,” Gimenez said. “Well, we’re not constantly being badgered by these nations that are harboring our greatest adversaries.”
He said another country that could soon draw attention from the administration is Nicaragua.
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