Invest 92L, the disturbance we’ve been following since early last week, was upgraded to the 7th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season early Wednesday, breaking an unprecedented 20-day dry spell through what’s traditionally the busiest part of the season.

The new system, located about midway between Africa and the Caribbean, is forecast to become Tropical Storm Gabrielle later Wednesday and slowly strengthen into the second hurricane of the season by late weekend but poses no threat to land through at least the weekend.

By early next week, the system will turn northward around the western edge of the subtropical high steering and could pass near or east of Bermuda from next Monday to Wednesday.

Probability that Tropical Depression Seven (future Gabrielle) passes to within about 100 miles of any given location based on our reliable global forecast models. For now the consensus shows the highest odds that the system passes near or east of Bermuda for early next week. Credit: Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma.

Intensity guidance is all over the map for next week – from a tropical storm to a major hurricane – so interests in Bermuda will want to continue to follow the forecast trends in the days ahead.

Intensity guidance for Tropical Depression Seven as of early Wednesday. Models vary wildly on the system’s future intensity, from a Category 3 or 4 hurricane to a tropical storm. Credit: cyclonicwx.com.

For those of us statewide, future Gabrielle will turn well before reaching the U.S. and won’t pose a threat next week.

Short-term struggles

The newly-minted tropical depression is still in its formative stages and in no hurry to organize. The system is large and its circulation is elongated and still not very well defined.

Storminess remains spotty and disorganized, so we’d expect this one to take a little time to cook.

The general flavor of forecast models is slow goings on strengthening into the weekend, but perhaps more robust strengthening by late weekend and early next week.

The environment now and ahead is far from pristine – with a series of upper-level lows acting as speed bumps along its path – so future Gabrielle has some work to do to fend off bouts of shear and dry air.

Interest waning in the next wave

Forecast models noticeably cooled on development odds for the tropical wave closer to Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands.

NHC is maintaining a low chance of development this week for the system, but other than some squally weather in the Cabo Verde Islands today and Thursday, the system is no threat to land areas for the foreseeable future.

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Depression forms, forecast to become Gabrielle later today

New system breaks a nearly 3-week dry spell in the Atlantic at the peak of the hurricane season

Short-term struggles

Interest waning in the next wave

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Michael Lowry