As we previewed in this newsletter two weeks ago, the Atlantic is finally heating up as we round out September.
After struggling most of last week, Gabrielle quickly regrouped over the weekend, strengthening into a hurricane on Sunday afternoon. Early Monday, it rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane and is forecast to touch Category 4 status later today as it safely passes about 175 miles east of Bermuda.
Though Bermuda could see gusty winds on the edge of Gabrielle’s circulation today and tonight, damaging winds from Gabrielle’s core will stay well offshore.
The only threat from Gabrielle will be rough seas and rip currents stretching all the way to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, from North Carolina northward to the northeast U.S. over the next few days.
Gabrielle is the second hurricane – and second major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane – to form this hurricane season and the latest second-forming Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Florence in 1994, which didn’t form until November 4. (Florence also holds the title for the latest second-forming hurricane on record).
In the modern satellite record (over the past 60 years), only three years have recorded their second-forming hurricane as late or later in the season as 2025: 1994 (November 4th), 1984 (September 25th), and 1987 (September 22nd).
Monitoring the tropical waves behind Gabrielle
We have two tropical waves that will deserve our attention this week behind Gabrielle.
The leading tropical wave that we detailed in Friday’s newsletter has a medium chance of development over the next 7 days.
This is the disturbance that wasn’t on NHC’s outlook map Friday but that we showed AI models picking up for possible development. The AI models were on the right track, and our conventional physics-based models are now showing that development possibility, especially late week into the weekend as it nears the southeastern Bahamas.
This is one we’ll need to follow closely stateside in the days ahead. There’s a high degree of uncertainty of what, if anything, comes of this disturbance but its trajectory toward the southwestern Atlantic or western Caribbean by the end of the week means we’ll need to keep an eye on the trends.
Models maintain a weak system this week but do show conditions more conducive to development as it approaches the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. The steering pattern will favor a turn as it nears the U.S. this weekend, but how far west it gets before it turns and whether it takes advantage of improving environmental conditions remains to be seen. It could also pass far enough south to get mixed up with the terrain of Cuba which would act to deter development.
Bottom line: check back on the forecast this week. We’ll keep you updated.
The tropical wave to its east has a high chance of development and forecast models are bullish on making it our next hurricane by this weekend or early next week as it bends north into the western Atlantic.
This one looks like it’ll make it farther west than Gabrielle, so Bermuda should be following the forecasts for next week.
We’ll monitor the trends, but forecast models for now suggest it should turn safely east of the U.S. next week.
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