Humberto – the 8th named storm of the hurricane season – formed Monday afternoon over the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane by Monday as it turns east of the U.S.
Meanwhile a strong disturbance to Humberto’s west – designated Invest 94L – is poised to become Imelda by this weekend as it moves into the Bahamas and could threaten parts of the southeastern U.S. from Georgia to the Carolinas as a hurricane by next Monday or Tuesday.
U.S. threat growing
As we discussed yesterday in this newsletter, the forecast for both Humberto and future Imelda is complicated by how close they get to one another this weekend and early next week.
Since Monday, the forecast trend has been for a slower Humberto to the east and faster future Imelda to the west. This shift increases the distance between the two systems, lessening the influence they might have on each other and in turn reducing the so-called “spread” or uncertainty in forecast models.
The separation also gives future Imelda an opportunity to organize and strengthen without the countering influence of Humberto’s circulation to stunt its growth or help peel it away from the coast.
The good news for now is models largely continue to keep 94L east of Florida but close enough that interests here in the Sunshine State will want to keep tabs on the forecast.
Farther up the coast, especially from southeast Georgia through the Carolinas, the forecast trends have been less friendly. Since yesterday, the guidance has trended to a bend west toward the Carolinas with future Imelda by next Monday into Tuesday.
That said, the guidance for 94L early Thursday again shifted back offshore, so a strike on the U.S. is by no means a lock.
Intensity guidance, like their track counterparts, have hemmed and hawed over 94L’s future as a named storm but the system will be moving into a more favorable upper-level environment and very warm waters around the Bahamas and off the southeast U.S. this weekend that will favor organization into early next week. The upshot is a growing risk of a hurricane threat for parts of the southeast U.S. north of Florida to start next work week.
It’s important to keep in mind that forecasts for systems like 94L that haven’t yet formed are finicky and subject to larger errors. Hurricane Hunters have already begun surveillance flights on Invest 94L to sample its low-level environment as well as the atmosphere around and ahead of it. The additional data will be included in model runs today and will hopefully help steady the forecast.
As we’ve mentioned in previous newsletters, the system could also pose a heavy rain and flood threat to the Carolinas, southern and central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic regardless of development and even if it stays offshore next week.
Humberto becoming better organized
Like its sibling to the west, Humberto has been battling bouts of wind shear. The shear, however, appears to be lessening some and convection is beginning to build westward around the circulation center.
The forecast is for gradual strengthening today and Friday but more pronounced strengthening this weekend as Humberto bends northwestward around the western edge of the Bermuda high steering.
High-resolution hurricane models are especially aggressive in strengthening Humberto to a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend into early next week and officially NHC follows these trends, forecasting Humberto to become the third Category 3 or stronger hurricane of the season.
Forecast models are in fair agreement with curling Humberto northward and northeastward early next week, taking its center west of Bermuda and east of the U.S. Since Bermuda will likely be on the east side – the stronger and wetter side – of Humberto, interests in the British Overseas Territory will want to follow the forecasts closely.
Humberto’s closest point of approach to Bermuda should come around middle next week, from late next Tuesday to early next Thursday.
Gabrielle to bring hurricane conditions to the Azores starting tonight
Gabrielle continues to race eastward over the North Atlantic toward the Azores Islands that sit about 1,000 miles west of Portugal.
The Category 1 hurricane is expected to bring hurricane conditions to parts of the Azores – most notably the central group of islands that includes Graciosa, Terceira, São Jorge, Pico, and Faial – and a hurricane warning is in effect for all 9 islands of the Azores archipelago.
Gabrielle’s strong winds will be especially widespread through the higher terrain of the volcanic island chain. Conditions will deteriorate quickly beginning this evening local time with the worst of the weather coming during the first part of Friday. Conditions should begin to improve by the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.
Gabrielle is the strongest hurricane to threaten the Azores since Lorenzo in 2019.
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